Mount Atlas

His record overall sits at five wins from 19 races, a win rate of roughly one in every four starts, and his recent form suggests he has found a groove. In his last six races, he has won once, finished in the top 3 four times, and never run completely out of the frame — that consistency is the kind of pattern you notice. He has picked up two wins from those six runs, which tells you he is winning at the right moments, not just scrambling into a finish.

What makes Mount Atlas tick becomes clear when you look at the details. He thrives on fast, dry ground: he has won half his races when conditions are firm and quick, a preference that shapes where he should run. Put him on wet or muddy ground and his form flattens. His wins at Class 2 level, the top tier, come at 29 per cent — two from seven — which is respectable without being spectacular, suggesting that while he belongs at the highest level, he is not dominating it. His trainer is Andrew Balding, whose Kingsclere yard has sent out 202 winners this season alone, a yard in genuine form. Interestingly, Oisin Murphy, who rides him most often, has not managed a win in five races together, a quirk that suggests Mount Atlas may run better for other jockeys. The horse is five years old, established enough to know his strengths, and recent enough in the winner's circle that he is worth following.