Worcester

Rated 11lbs below the field average — the lowest-rated runner here by a clear margin — and its last three runs include two pulled-ups and a fifth beaten 48 lengths. One win from 14 career races, and nothing in recent form to suggest a turnaround is coming.

The top-rated horse in this field by 4lbs, and arriving on the back of a win just 23 days ago — the freshest recent form of the fancied runners. Wins roughly 1 in 6 races overall, but that number flatters to deceive: its last win came at Newton Abbot, where it has a notably strong record compared to anywhere else. The odds have drifted sharply from early prices, which is worth noting, but the form and fitness case is the most rounded here.

The second-highest rated horse in the field and the most obvious threat to the selection on paper — but ten races into its career, it has never won, and its last three runs include a pulled-up and a 21-length beating on this very course 55 days ago. It has been placed four times, so it can be competitive, but it hasn't shown it can finish the job when it matters.

The most experienced horse in the field by some distance — 25 races compared to a field average of 14 — but two of its three career wins have come at a single track, Huntingdon, which is not on the card today. It ran just 12 days ago and finished fifth, beaten over 10 lengths, and its record away from Huntingdon is thin. Experience counts for something, but this horse's best form has been very track-specific.