The market favourite at 3.85 has three straight top-3 finishes including a win at Chepstow 92 days ago, and his 14% win rate (1 from 7) is decent, but he's only raced once on fast ground. A strong closing run on paper, but not the bulletproof case his odds suggest in this bunched Class 6 contest.
Goldfinder finished second by just 0.2 lengths at Wolverhampton 88 days ago but hasn't shown that form since, posting a run of 5-2-4-4-4-4 that screams 'stuck at a level'. Like several rivals, he's never raced on fast ground, making this an unproven gamble at 6.5.
Dropping in classWearing cheekpiecesWon 2 of last 5Loves this ground (50% win rate)
TrackLab Insight
This is the only runner with a winning record (three wins from 12 races, 25% win rate) and he's proven on fast ground where he wins roughly half his races; he's also the most experienced horse in the field by a distance. The step up in class is a concern after 38 days off, but his profile towers above a field of maidens.
Steps up 2 classesBest record on this ground (3 from 6)Most experienced (12 runs, field avg 5)Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
The lowest-rated horse in the field (9 pounds below average) carries the lightest weight, which helps, and his second-place finish at this course 12 days ago shows he can at least get close here. That said, one place from six races is threadbare form, though at 11.0 he offers a bit of value if repeating that Windsor effort.
Lowest rated, 9lbs below averageCarries lowest weight in field
Despite being favourite in the editorial pick at 13.0, this horse has won nothing from five races and posted the same bleak run of 6-8-7-6-6 across his last five outings—pure consistency in failing to get competitive. His sole merit is market confidence, but the data screams otherwise.
Wearing cheekpiecesQuick turnaroundWon 0 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
Turning out just seven days after her last race is brave or desperate, and her record of 6-7-8-20-10-6 shows she's been all over the place without winning once. The quick turnaround suggests the yard are grasping for answers, and 22.0 odds feel like a stay-away bet.
Another maiden who's never raced on fast ground, now facing it for the first time after a run of 8-8-7 in her last three outings—she's moving backwards, not forwards. At 23.0, she's one of the drifters nobody wants.
One placed finish from four races and a recent third at Newmarket (29 days ago) gives her the most recent form of note, but she's still a maiden and her draw in stall one is unhelpful on a track where low draws win just 14% of the time. At 15.0, there's some value if she can repeat that Newmarket effort.
A big step up in class (three levels) for a filly with zero wins or places from four races—the recent 29-length beating at Newbury tells you everything about where she belongs. At 23.0 odds, the market has no faith, and rightly so.
Wearing cheekpiecesFresh (78 days off)Won 0 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
This filly has placed three times from six races but has never won and faces a critical test on fast, dry ground for the first time—a genuine unknown. Her odds have drifted sharply from 1.1 to 28.0, suggesting the market doesn't fancy her chances in this competitive field, and that long layoff (78 days) won't help against fresher rivals.
Only three career races means we're in uncharted territory here, and his record reads 6-5-4 with no wins; the gap between fourth-placed and sixth-placed finishes suggests he hasn't found his level yet. Running for the first time with jockey Jason Watson adds another question mark.
H. Vigors(5)
·
S. Williams
· 3yo
· 9st 6lb
· OR 57
ClassHeadgear
1.6
Dropping in classWearing cheekpiecesFresh (110 days off)Won 0 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
The longest absence in the field at 110 days is a red flag, and she's stepped up two classes without ever showing she belongs here—her record of 6-11-6-12 is grim reading. The fact she's somehow still 23.0 after all that tells you the market is unimpressed.
Steps up 2 classesAbsent 110 days (longest in field)
Seven races, zero wins, zero places—the worst record in the field by some margin—with her last six finishes reading 8-7-7-6-11-7. Stepping up two classes after a 54-day absence is cruel handicapping for a horse going nowhere fast.
Never raced on fast ground and his form of 10-9-9-5 shows no pattern of improvement, just random scattered results. Running for the first time with his jockey Georgia Dobie adds uncertainty, and 41.0 odds reflect the field's indifference.
Only three races on the board and she's finished 9th, 8th, and 7th—a downward trend that's impossible to ignore. Her trainer's yard may have nine winners this season, but this filly isn't delivering them, and 36.0 odds feel generous.
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.