Windsor

Has never raced on dry ground — every run in his career has come on softer or standard conditions — so today's dry surface is a genuine unknown for this horse. He broke his duck at Wolverhampton 76 days ago but has finished fifth and seventh since, suggesting that win hasn't sparked a run of form. Hard to back with confidence when the ground is uncharted territory.

At nine years old and with 59 races under his belt, this is easily the most experienced horse in a field that averages around 27 races per runner — but experience hasn't translated into success on today's conditions, with just one win from 30 races on standard ground. His best form has come on faster, dry ground at Brighton, and Windsor is a very different track. Sixth last time out and well beaten, the recent evidence doesn't encourage.

The most experienced horse in the field by a distance — 61 races compared to a field average of 27 — but rated 7lbs below the field average, the lowest rating here, which tells you the handicapper doesn't think much of his current chances. Three consecutive poor finishes, beaten well each time, and has never won on today's ground conditions or on a right-handed track like Windsor. At 41.0, the market agrees this is a tough ask.