The key to understanding this horse is Brighton. On the clifftop track with its famous downhill bend and tight turns, Kondratiev Wave has won 3 of 13 races — that is nearly 1 in every 4, a win rate that towers over anything he manages elsewhere. For context, his overall win rate is just 7%, roughly 1 in every 14 races. Brighton clearly suits him in a way most tracks simply do not, and Tony Carroll's yard at Cropthorne has clearly figured that out. Carroll has been in fine form this season with 136 winners sent out, so when he points Kondratiev Wave towards a specific track, it is worth paying attention.
The partnership with jockey Jack Doughty is another detail that stands out. In 17 races together, Doughty has ridden him to all 4 of his career wins — that is a win rate of 24%, or roughly 1 in every 4 rides. That is a striking number for a horse who wins just once every 14 races with other riders. Some horses simply click with a particular jockey, and this is clearly one of them.
Dry, fast ground unlocks him too. On quick summer turf he has won 2 from 9 races — 22%, or 1 in every 4.5 — and his most productive distance range is 7 furlongs to a mile, where all four of his wins have come across 38 races. The trainer noted as far back as a stable tour in August 2024 that he had been excellent that year, winning twice and placing four more times in a short spell. His last win came at Brighton in October 2024, so it has now been 20 months since he visited the winner's enclosure.
Recent form shows three places from his last five completed races — he is consistently competitive without quite getting over the line. At Class 6, the entry level of British flat racing, he has posted 4 wins from 37 races. He raced just yesterday. At nine, with dry ground and Brighton on the horizon, he has not said his final word yet.
| Course | Races | Results | Last visited | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lingfield Park Sharp |
20 | 2 seconds, 5 thirds, 13 other | 25 Mar | 0% |
| Brighton Undulating |
13 | 3 wins, 1 second, 3 thirds, 6 other | 29 May | 23.1% |
| chelmsford | 7 | 1 win, 2 seconds, 1 third, 3 other | 15 Jan | 14.3% |
| Kempton Park Galloping |
6 | 1 second, 5 other | 12 Feb | 0% |
| Southwell Galloping |
3 | 1 second, 2 other | 29 Apr | 0% |
| Windsor Sharp |
3 | 1 second, 2 other | 21 Jul | 0% |
| Wolverhampton Galloping |
2 | 1 second, 1 other | 1 Apr | 0% |
| Newcastle Galloping |
1 | 1 other | 27 Nov | 0% |
| Epsom Downs Undulating |
1 | 1 other | 8 Sep | 0% |
| Bath Undulating |
1 | 1 second | 12 May | 0% |
| Leicester Sharp |
1 | 1 second | 15 Jun | 0% |