Kondratiev Wave

What makes Kondratiev Wave worth watching is how much it improves with the right conditions and the right jockey. Jack Doughty, who rides the horse most often, has found the formula: they have won four races together from just seventeen outings, a win rate of roughly one in four—nearly four times better than the horse's overall record. This is not coincidence. There is a partnership there. On dry, fast ground over distances between seven furlongs and a mile, the horse transforms. It has won four of its forty-one races at this trip, a 10% win rate. That matters. And at Brighton, it is a course specialist: three wins from sixteen races, the kind of record that makes a trainer smile when the fixture list comes out.

The last win came at Brighton on 8 October 2024, nearly two years ago now. Since then, the horse has raced consistently without breaking through, finishing in the placings on its last two outings and showing enough in recent races to suggest it is still competing at a decent level. Trained by Tony Carroll's high-winning yard at Cropthorne in Worcestershire, it continues to run regularly—only a day ago—and still races in the lower classes where it has won almost one in every nine races. For a horse of nine, for a horse with this record, that is not retirement talk. It is a horse with a job to do and the experience to do it.