Kondratiev Wave

Those big moments, when they have come, have almost always come at Brighton. Three of his four career wins have been on that clifftop track on the south coast, including his most recent success back in October 2024. Brighton is one of the most unusual tracks in Britain — a tight, undulating course that suits horses who know their way around it — and Kondratiev Wave clearly does. Fourteen visits, three wins, that is a win rate of roughly 1 in every 5 races there, which stands in sharp contrast to his overall record of 1 in every 15. Some horses just have a favourite venue, and this is unmistakably his.

The other thing that suits him is dry, fast ground. On firm or fast conditions he has won twice from ten attempts, a 20% win rate — more than double his overall average. His trainer Tony Carroll noted back in the summer of 2024 that he had been one of their better performers that season, winning twice and placing four more times. Carroll's yard at Cropthorne has sent out 136 winners this season alone, so this is a busy, well-organised operation, and Kondratiev Wave has been a reliable if modest contributor to it.

His partnership with jockey Jack Doughty tells its own story. Together they have four wins from 17 races — winning roughly 1 in every 4 times they team up, which is a noticeably better return than with any other rider. That kind of chemistry between horse and jockey matters, especially for a horse who competes mainly at Class 6, the entry level of British flat racing, where margins are small and familiarity counts.

He raced just yesterday and has not won in his last six outings. At nine, the windows are narrowing. But he is fit, active, trained by a yard in fine form, and there is a track in East Sussex where he has a habit of turning up and surprising people. It would be unwise to write him off entirely.