One of the more successful runners with a win from nine races, Based also excels on standard ground (1 from 5), which suits today's conditions perfectly. His recent form is patchy, but a proven jockey-trainer combination (7 wins from 62 together) and mid-range odds at 5.5 suggest decent value.
One of the more successful in the field (1 career wins)
Wearing blinkersFresh (67 days off)Won 2 of last 5Loves this ground (33% win rate)
TrackLab Insight
Top-rated by a clear margin with the best win rate in this field at 25%, Surgeon Commander also boasts a standout 50% success rate at Newcastle and wins 2 from 6 on this type of surface. His recent breakthrough at Newcastle 67 days ago, combined with a low draw (2) that suits Southwell's statistics, makes him the progressive pick in a competitive field.
Best record on this ground (2 from 6)Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
Wearing cheekpiecesWon 0 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
Rated equal at the top but winless after nine races, Taaklam has never crossed the line first despite three placing finishes—a stark contrast to Surgeon Commander's form. His recent efforts at Ayr and Newcastle show struggle, and the high draw (10) offers no advantage at this track.
Lowest-rated runner carrying least weight but also winless from three races with all three finishes near the back of the field—sixth, seventh, seventh. Her 140-day absence is concerning and the trainer-jockey combination has zero wins from ten races together.
Lowest rated, 4lbs below averageCarries lowest weight in fieldLightly raced (3 career races)
Wearing visorWon 0 of last 5Won at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
The only winner at this exact distance in the field with 1 win from 3 races at 6f, Soul Warrior broke through at Redcar last September but has struggled since. His recent form is poor—eighth at Thirsk just 24 days ago—and he has no wins on fast ground, which is a risk today.
Only winner at this distanceBest record at this trip (1 from 3)
Most successful horse in the field with two wins from 17 races (12% win rate) and a proven trainer-jockey partnership with 86 wins together, but her recent form is alarming—twelfth at Redcar just 9 days ago beaten 17 lengths. She's winless on good-to-firm ground and shows inconsistency.
One of the more successful in the field (2 career wins)
Steps up four classes here without a career win from four races, having recently fallen away badly to twelfth at Ayr after showing promise with consecutive top-three finishes. The low draw (1) offers minimal help when the horse lacks proven ability at this level.
Only four races in with one place finish and no wins, Golden Harvest showed third-place form at Southwell 39 days ago, suggesting he's not entirely out of his depth. Limited data makes him hard to trust, but the low draw (3) at least works in his favour.
Unfancied at 23.0 odds despite sharing third-highest rating with Based, Harlequin Bay has yet to win in seven races and his recent form is concerning—beat over 30 lengths at Haydock just 102 days ago. The high draw (13) and lack of course experience compound the doubts.
Winless after nine races with just one place finish, Great Success was only beaten 8.8 lengths at this very track 15 days ago but finished eleventh—pattern suggests he's struggling to find his level. The mid-range trainer-jockey combo and outside odds of 23.0 reflect a horse unlikely to surprise.
Fresh (315 days off)Won 0 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
The longest absence in the field at 315 days away from the track raises serious questions about returning fitness and readiness—horses are unpredictable after five-month breaks. Only three career races and zero wins make this a genuine lottery pick at 12.0 odds.
Lightly raced (3 career races)Absent 315 days (longest in field)
Only three races into his career with no wins or places, Rogue Federation represents a genuine unknown—though his trainer's combination wins at 50% win rate together, suggesting some system in place. His most recent outing at this very track 39 days ago ended in eighth, which is not encouraging.
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.