Sandown
·
Novices' Handicap Hurdle Race (GBB Race)
Starts in
18h 33min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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25
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 9/4
£1 wins £2.25 · 25 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.25 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 3 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- 8 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- J. Owen has a 3.3% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite at 9/4, and with good reason—this horse has finished in the top three in five of seven races, including a near-miss second at Newcastle just seven months ago. Yet that consistency without wins is the exact paradox that defines him: five finished in the top 3 finishes from seven races tells you he turns up and tries hard, but the breakthrough remains elusive at six years old. The jockey-trainer pairing has a strong record together (9 wins from 40 races), which could be the missing ingredient.
Market favourite (9/4)
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- With a 15% win rate overall, B. Hughes is one of the more dependable riders.
- B. Hughes has a good 2.2% record here. Knowing the course is one of a jockey's biggest strengths.
- Has been off the track for 63 days. That is a long break. Some horses come back fresh. Others need a run to get fit again.
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced horse in the field by a distance (15 races versus a field average of 7), and the only one to have won at top-level Class 2—a breakthrough that came just five months ago at Goodwood despite 14 races of mostly finishing second. Recent second-place finishes show he remains competitive, and his 25% win rate over 2m+ distances points to genuine comfort at this trip. However, he has never won on good ground in seven attempts, which is a meaningful weakness for today's conditions.
Most experienced (15 runs, field avg 7)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.33 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- An 8-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- An 11.1% record at this course for B. Pauling. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Only two races under his belt and already two third-place finishes—a lightly raced five-year-old who clearly has ability but hasn't yet put it together over the line. The Ben Pauling yard is exceptionally well-trained in developing horses (131 wins from 694 races as a partnership), suggesting there may be more to come. However, he is still entirely unproven at this distance and against this standard, making him the rawest prospect in a competitive field.
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An 8-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- A prize fund of £5,281 is healthy. When trainers aim at valuable races, they usually have faith in their runner.
- At 15.8 lbs heavier than the average, the extra weight adds up, especially in the final furlong (the last 220 yards).
TrackLab Insight
The form horse here—two wins in his last six races, including a victory at Plumpton just three weeks ago—and he carries the lowest weight in the field by a clear margin despite the lowest rating. His 50% win rate on good ground at normal conditions is precisely what Sandown offers today, and he has proved he can win at Fontwell (one of his two recent victories). However, he is rated 15 pounds below the field average, which suggests stepping up in class is a real test even with recent form on his side.
Lowest rated, 15lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Best record on this ground (2 from 4)
2
Kalif d'Airy
£1 wins £9 · 8 Could surprise
Wins 25% of the time on this type of ground
8
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £10.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Wins 25% of the time on this type of ground. Some horses run much better on soft or firm ground. This one suits today's ground.
- An 8-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
The only horse in this field with a win at the 2m 4f distance, and he won it at 25% success rate on dry ground—exactly what Sandown offers today. A five-month gap since that breakthrough Lingfield win is a concern, but this six-year-old's record of 1 win from 4 races at this trip gives him a concrete edge over rivals who have never managed it. The tongue strap and cheekpieces suggest the stable is working to keep him sharp for a return.
Only winner at this distance
Best record at this trip (1 from 4)
7
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £12.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 3 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- 8 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- Has not raced for 374 days. That is a long time away, and we cannot be sure the horse will be fit enough.
TrackLab Insight
Returning from a 374-day absence—by far the longest lay-off in the field—after finishing second at Stratford over a year ago. This seven-year-old has never won in five races but has been finished in the top 3 in four of them, painting a picture of consistent minor-league performer rather than a danger horse. The prolonged break means his readiness is a significant unknown, and the Fergal O'Brien yard will need him to slot straight back in without missing a beat.
Absent 374 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- A 2m 4f race suits this horse well. When a horse is comfortable with the distance, it can settle into a good rhythm.
- K. Jewell wins 4.2% of their races overall. That is below the top trainers.
TrackLab Insight
Six races in and still winless, but this five-year-old has finished in the top three in half its outings—showing it competes rather than merely taking up space. The big drift in the odds (from 1/9 to 16/1) suggests the market has little faith despite a respectable rating, though recent form of 3-2-3 shows some consistency at tracks like Fontwell and Huntingdon. Data is thin enough that any improvement would be noticeable, but the lack of a breakthrough win remains the elephant in the room.
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £21.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 3 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- This is an 8-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- Has not raced for 158 days. That is a long time away, and we cannot be sure the horse will be fit enough.
TrackLab Insight
The best win rate in the field at roughly 1 win in every 3 races, but the most recent seven months have been barren—last success came in March, followed by a run of top-3 finishes and a pulled-up finish at Chepstow just 29 days ago. That withdrawal raises immediate questions about soundness, and the horse hasn't seen a track regularly enough to inspire confidence in a quick turnaround. He has won with his jockey at 40%, but harsh recent form and the hood headgear suggest he has some sorting out to do.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 3)
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.