Salisbury

The only horse in this field with a win at Salisbury, and crucially has won over this exact course and distance before — that local knowledge matters on a track with a unique downhill run. He was a close second here just over two months ago, beaten less than a length, so the course form is live and recent. Rated seven pounds below Curran, but with cheekpieces fitted and proven form on this track, he makes the most compelling case for an upset.

A nine-year-old veteran of 39 races, he is the lowest-rated horse with realistic claims but carries plenty of question marks into this contest. His best form is at Worcester, where he wins nearly 1 in 3 races, but there is no evidence he handles a track like Salisbury — and today's jockey has never ridden him before. A pulled-up run at Worcester last month adds further doubt about whether he arrives here in top shape.

Seventeen races into her career and yet to win one — she is the lowest-rated horse in the field by some margin, sitting twelve pounds below the average rating. She runs again just six days after finishing third at Bath, which is a quick turnaround, and a new jockey takes over for the first time today. It is hard to make a case for her on the figures alone, though she does carry the lightest weight in the race.