Ripon

Second-best rated but a genuine threat: 5 wins from 41 races tells you he knows how to win at this level, and he's won 3 from 8 on good-to-soft ground (the key stat for wet conditions). The concern is brutal—he's yet to win at Ripon in 6 attempts and he's struggled badly in his last outing, beaten over 21 lengths at Pontefract 85 days ago.

The only course winner in the field—she's won at Ripon (1 from 1)—but that advantage is undermined by catastrophic recent form on the ground: zero wins from 7 soft-ground races. She's also won on fast, dry ground; soft ground is her kryptonite, and this wet-track contest represents the worst possible conditions for her profile.

A Newmarket specialist with a stunning 75% win rate at his home track (3 from 4), but he's raced exclusively at Newmarket or other tracks recently and has never won on standard or left-handed galloping tracks. Ripon is a left-handed galloping course, which directly contradicts his strengths—he's in unfamiliar territory here despite his recent form.

The editorial favourite, but the numbers tell a cautionary tale: 13 races without a win, though two placings in his last three outings suggest he's finding form. He's rated 5lbs clear of the field average, but that narrow margin at Class 6 level and his complete lack of victory record mean this hinges entirely on whether the form line holds—a risky proposition when backing a horse that's never won.