Newmarket (July)

The best career win rate in the field — he wins roughly 1 in every 4 races — and he has a brilliant record over this exact distance of seven furlongs, winning 4 from 14 attempts there. The problem is his recent form is poor, with three consecutive finishes of fifth, fifth, and sixth, and this jockey-trainer partnership has yet to win together from 14 attempts.

The standout angle here is simple: she is the only horse in this field who has already won at this course and distance, making her course form directly relevant in a way no rival can match. She has also finished second in two of her last three races, suggesting she is in decent shape right now — and our analysts have picked her as their selection, rating her progressive profile above even the top-rated horse. The jockey rides for this trainer for the first time, which adds a small unknown, but the course record is hard to ignore.

His best winning record comes over five to six and a half furlongs, which makes today's seven furlongs a question mark — horses that prefer shorter trips can struggle when the race gets more stamina-based. His last two runs were poor (ninth and fifteenth), and the positive placed finish before that came over a different track and trip. A new jockey riding for the trainer for the first time adds further uncertainty.

She has been off the track for 176 days — the longest absence of any horse in this field — and returning from nearly six months off in a competitive race is a tough ask. She has only ever won once in 17 races, and her record on the type of fast, dry ground Newmarket can provide in summer is zero wins from three attempts. Hard to recommend with confidence given both the break and the limited winning evidence.