Listowel

Second in the market at 5.8, Wholelotofbusiness has only won once from 12 races but has placed eight times, meaning this horse nearly always turns up and competes without quite finishing the job. A 3rd at Killarney 23 days ago on the same track as several rivals here keeps the form relevant, but a record of no wins from five races on normal conditions is a real concern given today's ground. At seven years old with that pattern established, it's hard to see what changes today.

Bossing It carries the lowest weight in the field and is rated 17lbs below the field average — the biggest weight-and-rating gap of any runner here, which in a handicap is designed to give the horse a fair chance. A 2nd-place finish at Wexford just 16 days ago suggests current form is reasonable, and this horse has the best record on today's ground conditions of any runner, winning 1 from 3 on normal ground. The flip side is a record showing no wins on any softer ground, so whether the forecast rain arrives matters a great deal.

Only two career races makes Becasse the least exposed horse in this field by a clear margin — we genuinely don't know how good this horse might be yet. Rated 8lbs above the field average, the form book shows a pulled up and a second, though the Killarney run 23 days ago carries no recorded finish position. Critically, he has never raced on normal conditions before, so today is an unknown — but the editorial view is that forecast rain will suit him, and lightly raced horses from Henry De Bromhead's yard often improve sharply with experience.

Frankendael carries the best career win rate in the field, winning roughly 1 in every 5 races across 20 outings, and has raced at this course before, finishing 3rd at Listowel exactly a year ago. But the most recent run was a heavy defeat — 17th at Punchestown, beaten nearly 48 lengths — and the data shows no wins on either normal or wet ground, which covers almost any conditions likely today. A less experienced jockey on board adds another layer of uncertainty.