Hamilton

The market favourite, and it's easy to see why — this horse has raced twice and won both times, a perfect record that no other runner here can match. The big question is whether that record means anything yet: two wins from two races is a tiny sample, and he hasn't raced in 94 days, the longest absence in the field. He also drops down three classes from his last run, which suggests the yard believe he's capable, but he's an unknown quantity stepping into competitive company.

The top-rated horse in this field by a clear 10 pounds, which is a significant advantage in a race like this. His last run at Ascot is currently a mystery — the result isn't listed — but his record shows a horse who wins roughly 1 in every 5 races at a high level, and he handles wet ground well too. The market has drifted sharply, which is worth noting, but on paper he has more class than anything else here.

A horse who keeps getting close without quite winning — his recent record includes a near-miss at Chester where he was beaten by less than a length, yet he was then tailed off in 9th at Epsom last time out, which is a confusing mix of signals. He wins roughly 1 in every 5 races and shares the second-highest rating in the field alongside two others, but inconsistency is his calling card. The editorial verdict flags him as a danger, and that narrow Chester second suggests ability is in there somewhere.

Carries the lightest weight in the race, which is an advantage in a race like this, and drops down three classes from his last run at Ascot where he finished 26th — that result looks like a horse out of its depth at the top level. Before that, he had finished in the top three in three races in a row, and he wins roughly 1 in every 2 races overall, which is a remarkable record for a three-year-old. The class drop brings him back to a more suitable level, and he shouldn't be dismissed at 12-1.