Rhoscolyn

The conditions matter enormously here. Rhoscolyn is a wet-weather horse in the truest sense — on soft ground he wins 3 from 13 races (23%), and on genuinely heavy, muddy ground that improves to 2 from just 4 races, which is one in every two. Trainer David O'Meara has been clear about the formula: soft ground, around a mile to a mile and a quarter, and ideally Goodwood. When those boxes are ticked, this horse is a different animal. When they are not, the results reflect it.

His six victories have all come at Class 2 level, meaning every single win has been in one of the better races in Britain. He has not been picking off easy targets — he has gone toe-to-toe with quality horses and beaten them, five times at his favourite track and once at Epsom. His most recent win came on 1 August 2025, a Class 2 at Goodwood again, suggesting the formula is still working even as he enters later life. O'Meara was quick to identify a £100,000 sprint back at Goodwood in late August as the logical next target, so there is clearly more to come from him on familiar ground.

The partnership with jockey Jason Watson, however, tells a more complicated story. In 17 races together they have won just once — roughly 1 in every 17, or about 6% — which is well below what Rhoscolyn is capable of on his day. O'Meara's yard has been in fine form this season, sending out 101 winners, and the horse remains active, having raced just yesterday. A six-race winless run since that August 2025 victory means he has something to prove again — but given his history, writing him off at Goodwood in the wet would be a brave thing to do.