M. James Hills(5)
·
C. Hills
· 4yo
· 11st 5lb
· OR 68
HeadgearFreshness
25
Wearing blinkersQuick turnaroundWon 1 of last 5Has won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
The editorial pick has genuine momentum—she won just seven days ago at Salisbury and has built form steadily through recent weeks, moving from mid-field finishes into the winner's circle. On dry ground over this distance, she's nearly unstoppable: three wins from six starts on fast ground and a 44% win rate at 1m1f–1m2f distances. The only real concern is the draw (middle at 9) and the fact she's never won on standard ground, but today's dry conditions are exactly what she needs.
Runs again after just 7 daysMarket favourite (3.5)
Wearing cheekpiecesWon 0 of last 5Has won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
Second in the market at 4.5, but recent form is deeply concerning—four fourth-place finishes and an eighth in his last six outings is a horse treading water rather than improving. He's won only four times from 32 races and has no wins on standard ground or standard-to-slow conditions, yet today's dry going is his only strength; the honest truth is he looks outgunned here.
M. George Gorman(3)
·
G. & Josh Moore
· 5yo
· 11st 1lb
· OR 69
HeadgearForm
12
Wearing cheekpiecesWon 2 of last 5Loves this ground (38% win rate)
TrackLab Insight
This is the standout on today's ground—three wins from eight starts on good-to-firm conditions (38%) and he's won twice in the last 22 days, most recently at Brighton. However, he has zero wins on good ground and zero on soft, which means he needs the fast going to stay firm; if the track deteriorates, he becomes a different proposition entirely.
Despite a high rating, he's drifted to 21.0 and has won just twice from 27 races—a concerning 7% win rate that tells you this horse is out of form and out of favour. His only glimmer is at longer distances (1m3f–1m4f), but this race at 1m1f sits outside his sweet spot, and his recent form at Epsom (5th and 3rd from last two runs) suggests he's struggling to find his way.
Wearing tongue strapWon 0 of last 5Raced here beforeHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
At nine years old, he's placed in two of his last three races (2nd by just 0.3L at Windsor, 3rd at Newbury), which suggests he's finding a groove late in his career—but he's won only four times from 33 races, and today's distance (1m1f) sits well outside his best range (1m6f–2m). The high draw (10) compounds the problem in a race that may not suit his profile.
M. Hezekiah March(7)
·
G. & Josh Moore
· 9yo
· 10st 9lb
· OR 63
C&DHeadgear
6.8
Won at this course & distanceWearing blinkersWon 0 of last 5Won here 3 timesWon at this distance 2 times
TrackLab Insight
This is the course and distance specialist that matters—he's won three times from eight races at Goodwood (38%) and has won twice from three races at exactly 1m1f, with a win here before. On good ground he wins 43% of the time, and although he hasn't raced since Kempton 51 days ago, his course expertise and proven distance form make him a serious contender at 17.0.
Course specialist (3 wins from 8 here)Has won over this course and distanceBest record at this trip (2 from 3)
Lowest rated and carrying lowest weight (140lbs), but a single win from 18 races (6%) is the poorest record in the field—he's simply outclassed here. Recent form shows three straight defeats at Lingfield, and he has no wins on standard ground or over left-hand galloping tracks like Goodwood; odds of 18.0 look generous for a horse this modest.
Lowest rated, 12lbs below averageCarries lowest weight in field
M. Guy Mitchell(5)
·
D. Menuisier
· 4yo
· 10st 12lb
· OR 66
FreshnessForm
4.2
Fresh (62 days off)Won 0 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
Best career win rate in the field at 22% (four wins from 18 races), but she hasn't raced since Newcastle 62 days ago and has finished 7th three races in a row before that—a horse badly out of form and carrying too much time off. While she loves standard ground (36% win rate) and Wolverhampton (43%), this is Goodwood on dry turf, and nothing in her current profile suggests she's ready to bounce back here.
M. Henry Moore(5)
·
J. Tickle
· 5yo
· 11st 0lb
· OR 68
FormDistance
1.6
Won 1 of last 5Won at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
At 21.0 odds and with just two wins from 18 races, this is a longshot that hasn't raced in 58 days—a lengthy absence in a field where most runners are recent and sharp. The one genuine plus is his jockey-trainer combination with Henry Moore (2 wins from 2 together), but form is thin on the ground, and recent efforts before the break were all disappointing.
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.