Epsom

Best win rate in the field at roughly 1 in 3, but those three victories have all come on faster ground — he's never tackled slightly soft conditions and has lost his way badly in recent weeks with back-to-back defeats. The draw in mid-field and long lay-off count against him despite his proven ability at this trip.

Editorial favourite and 14 lb clear on ratings, but the data tells a different story: he hasn't won in almost two years, his last three races have all ended in defeat, and he's never raced with this jockey before. The slightly soft ground suits him (29% win rate on soft), but the long lay-off and massive odds drift suggest the market sees serious risk here.

Never raced on slightly soft ground and has been out since running poorly at Windsor 42 days ago, making her a complete unknown for these conditions. With only 1 win from 9 races and no wins on faster ground either, she looks genuinely exposed in this company.

Three career wins give him decent credentials, and he's well-suited to this trip at nearly 30% win rate — but his recent form is poor with no wins in six races, and he's never won on good ground, which is problematic given the slightly soft conditions. The jockey-trainer combination has won nothing from four races together.

Lowest-rated runner but a genuine Epsom specialist with 2 wins from 6 races here — however, he's never won on good-to-soft ground and has zero wins in three attempts on similar conditions. The poor recent form and significant rating gap make him a long shot despite the course form.