Doncaster
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Spooky Spectacular Fireworks At Doncaster Racecourse Nursery Handicap Stakes
Starts in
13h 52min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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£1 wins 62p · 61 Very strong chance
4 runners today is a good number for this horse
61
Our top pick for this race
Very strong chance
Odds 8/13
£1 wins 62p · 61 Very strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.62 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 4 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- C. Appleby has won 26.1% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- C. Appleby has a 23.1% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
The standout here: top-rated by 3lbs and a two-win record from just three races (67% win rate), with three straight top-3 finishes. The draw in stall 1 suits this course, and William Buick–Charlie Appleby have a strong record together, but this is a significant unknown—National Honour has never raced on wet ground, so the soft Doncaster turf is genuinely new territory. The 40-day break is also notable; after two quick wins, this represents a step back in preparation.
Top rated by 3lbs
Never raced on wet ground
Lightly raced (3 career races)
3 straight top-3 finishes
£1 wins £6.50 · 13 Solid chance
This is a 4-runner race, and the size suits this horse
13
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This is a 4-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- R. Hannon has won 12.3% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- Only 11th last time out. That is not what we want to see before today's race.
TrackLab Insight
Won at Doncaster 93 days ago and brings a 33% win rate across six races—the best win rate in the field. However, recent form is a real concern: 11th then 9th in the last two outings, both beaten well over a month ago, and no wet-ground experience to draw on. The blinkers suggest the trainer is working to sharpen focus, but the downward trend is hard to ignore.
Never raced on wet ground
Best career win rate in field (1 in 3)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 4-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- A 14.4% overall win rate for A. Balding. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- A 14.3% record at this course for A. Balding. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Zero wins from three races with finishing positions of 7-5-4, and the most recent outing just 15 days ago at York where it finished fourth. This horse is the least experienced winner in a field where the other three have all tasted success, and the rapid turnaround suggests the trainer is hunting for a breakthrough through volume of racing. Wet ground is untested ground, and the 5/1 odds reflect legitimate uncertainty.
Never raced on wet ground
Lightly raced (3 career races)
£1 wins £6 · 13 Solid chance
This is a 4-runner race, and the size suits this horse
13
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This is a 4-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- A 12.2% overall win rate for K. R. Burke. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- Carrying 116 lbs today, which is a lot of weight. The extra pounds take their toll as the race goes on.
TrackLab Insight
Lowest-rated in the field (9lbs below average) and carries the lightest weight, but recorded a win at Redcar just 39 days ago and followed it with third at Musselburgh 24 days back—genuine evidence of building form. Data on this jockey-trainer pairing is non-existent (first time together), and like every runner here, wet ground is uncharted territory. The 17% win rate across six races is modest, but recent momentum is real.
Lowest rated, 9lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Never raced on wet ground
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.