Cork
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Irish Stallion Farms EBF Navigation Stakes (Listed)
Awaiting result
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
22
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 4/1
£1 wins £4 · 22 Strong chance
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- A 6.9% win rate at this course for C. Hayes. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
- A 12-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Second-rated after Action and has a 25% win rate over longer distances, but his only win came in March and he's flattered by recent places—5th, 5th, and 3rd in last three runs don't scream sharpness. The soft ground here is a positive (he handles it better than most), but he'll need to rediscover something from that earlier victory.
Among the fancied runners (6.5)
£1 wins £6 · 15 Solid chance
Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice
15
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- C. Keane has won 14.6% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- 12 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
One of the few with proven soft-ground credentials and has two wins from ten races with a strong pattern of consistency—placed in four of last six runs. Lacks a recent win and prefers shorter distances and faster ground, but the horse knows how to find a frame in this type of race.
One of the more successful in the field (2 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A. O'Brien wins 21.6% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- A 19.1% overall win rate for A. O'Brien. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- Came 11th in the last race. It might have been an off day, or the horse may be losing form.
TrackLab Insight
Top rated by 5lbs but drifting badly in the market—alarm bells for a horse who's won just once in eleven races and hasn't raced on soft ground before. Recent form is poor (11th, 8th, 6th in last three), and while he handles this distance well, the combination of untested conditions and a patchy record at class level makes him risky despite the rating.
Top rated by 5lbs
Never raced on soft ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- D. Marnane has won 8.2% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- Last raced 16 days ago. That is a normal gap between runs.
TrackLab Insight
One of the more experienced winners in the field with two victories and genuine recent form—won at Killarney three weeks ago and has a 33% win rate over this distance. However, his last two runs at Curragh show he's struggling to convert form, and he needs to prove he handles soft ground.
One of the more successful in the field (2 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- A 7.7% overall win rate for J. M. Sheridan. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- Last raced 16 days ago. That is a normal gap between runs.
TrackLab Insight
Market favourite at 4.1 with a solid 23% win rate and recent victory at Gowran Park, but he's better suited to shorter distances and his last run was a close fourth—just 1.5 lengths from the winner but still beaten. Softer ground here suits him less than the firm tracks where he's thrived.
Market favourite (4.1)
£1 wins £10 · 8 Could surprise
J. P. Murtagh has won 11.0% of their races in their career
8
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £11.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- J. P. Murtagh has won 11.0% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- B. Coen wins 9.7% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- 12 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Unbeaten in the frame across three career races (1 win, 2 places) with a record that screams potential, but he's been away for 135 days—longest absence in the field—and has never raced on soft ground. The raw ability is there, but returning to a listed race after such a gap is a significant unknown.
Never raced on soft ground
Lightly raced (3 career races)
3 straight top-3 finishes
Absent 135 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £12.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- J. Patrick O'Brien wins 14.0% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- Came home 1st last time out. A good recent run often carries over to the next race.
- J. Patrick O'Brien wins only 11.8% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Won just six weeks ago at Roscommon and shows a 50% win rate from two starts, but he's lightly raced, untested on soft ground, and his previous outing was a beaten fourth. Too little evidence to trust against seasoned rivals, even if the recent win is eye-catching.
Never raced on soft ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £29.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Finished 1st in the last race, which is a good result. A good last run suggests the horse is in good shape.
- S. Heffernan wins 8.6% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- 14 days since the last run. That is a usual break, so there is nothing to read into it.
TrackLab Insight
Explosive start to racing with a win at Punchestown just two weeks ago, but he's only had two races ever and has never seen soft ground—this is a huge step up in class. Odds have drifted dramatically from 1.02 to 20.0, suggesting the market doesn't fancy him against this field.
Never raced on soft ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £67.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A. Slattery wins 7.3% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- A 7.7% overall win rate for A. Slattery. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- A 12-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Won four months ago at Gowran Park but hasn't raced on soft ground and is massively out of form since that victory. A 109-day layoff followed by a return to a class 1 race is asking too much of a horse that's shown little beyond that one win.
Never raced on soft ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £41.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- An official rating of 98 is in this horse's favour. The rating comes from results, and this horse's number looks good.
- Finished 11th last time, which was a disappointing run. A poor last run raises questions about the horse's current form.
TrackLab Insight
Hasn't raced in two months and only one win from seven attempts is a thin record for a horse at this level. Recent form (11th at Galway, 4th at Curragh) doesn't suggest he's improving, and the long layoff adds to the uncertainty.
Mid-range in the market (18.5)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Finished 2nd in the last race, which is a good result. A good last run suggests the horse is in good shape.
- J. G Murphy wins only 5.2% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Best career win rate in the field at 25% but hasn't won since October and form has gone backwards with three poor runs sandwiched around a recent second at Listowel. Never raced on soft ground and looks vulnerable despite the decent strike-rate.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £51.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A. O'Brien wins 21.6% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- A 19.1% overall win rate for A. O'Brien. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- Came 13th in the last race. It might have been an off day, or the horse may be losing form.
TrackLab Insight
The only course winner in the field (1 from 1 at Cork) and broke her duck there just six weeks ago, but she's never run on soft ground and was hammered at Curragh last time out. The course form is positive, but the inconsistency and recent flop raise serious questions about her ability to handle these conditions.
Only course winner (1 from 1 here)
Never raced on soft ground