Gerard O'Leary

This season, O'Leary has produced 11 winners from 140 runners, which works out at roughly 1 in every 13 races — an 8% win rate that represents a step back from last year's 13%. That kind of dip is worth watching but not necessarily alarming; yards go through quieter spells, and the underlying numbers suggest the horses are running competitively even when they're not winning.

One place where O'Leary genuinely stands out is Naas. He has sent out 3 winners from just 9 runners there, which means he wins 1 in every 3 races at the track. That is a remarkable conversion rate — it suggests he knows exactly which horses suit that course and when to target it, rather than simply turning up and hoping. Trainers who punch above their weight at specific tracks usually do so because they understand the place, and Naas looks like O'Leary's happy hunting ground.

His standout horse is Noble Nation, with whom he has built a genuine partnership. Three wins from 11 races together — roughly 1 in every 4 — is a strong record, and it points to a trainer who has taken the time to understand what gets the best out of that particular animal. Ground conditions appear to play a role too: on slightly soft, wetter ground, O'Leary's horses win 2 from 15 races, a 13% win rate that edges above his season average and hints at a yard that may prefer a bit of cut in the surface.

Shane Foley is the jockey O'Leary turns to most often, with 21 rides for the yard, producing 2 winners. At roughly 1 in every 10, that partnership has not yet caught fire statistically, but the volume of rides suggests a genuine working relationship — Foley is clearly the trainer's go-to option, and these things often take time to click into gear. At four years in, O'Leary still looks like a trainer on the way up rather than one who has found his ceiling.