The broader numbers tell a more mixed story. This season Carmichael has ridden 6 winners from 67 races — roughly 1 in every 11 — and that represents a dip from the 1 in every 8 he was delivering last year. A slip from 13% to 9% in a single season isn't a crisis for a jockey still finding his feet, but it is the kind of trend that will need reversing if he is to push on into more competitive company.
Where he does look sharp is on normal ground conditions. From 19 races run on a standard surface, he has won 3 times — a win rate of 16%, or roughly 1 in 6. That is noticeably better than his overall numbers and hints that when conditions are straightforward and predictable underfoot, Carmichael is at his most effective and confident. Whether that edge holds as the sample grows will be one of the interesting questions to follow over the next 12 months.
At just two years in, the honest summary is that the foundations are there. The Johnson Houghton connection gives him a reliable base of rides, he clearly knows how to get the best out of a horse in the right conditions, and six winners in a season is a respectable tally for someone still learning the craft. The test now is whether he can stop the slide in his overall numbers and show that last year's form was a sign of things to come rather than a high-water mark.
| Course | Races | Wins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 8 | 1 | 12.5% |
| Wolverhampton | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
| Southwell | 6 | 1 | 16.7% |
| Kempton Park | 6 | 1 | 16.7% |
| Great Yarmouth | 6 | 0 | 0% |
| Lingfield Park | 5 | 1 | 20% |
| Leicester | 4 | 0 | 0% |
| Salisbury | 4 | 0 | 0% |
| Bath | 3 | 0 | 0% |
| Goodwood | 3 | 0 | 0% |
| Newbury | 3 | 0 | 0% |
| Windsor | 2 | 1 | 50% |
| Haydock Park | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| Newcastle | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| chelmsford | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| Chepstow | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| Ascot | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| Newmarket | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| Chester | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| Sandown Park | 1 | 0 | 0% |