Lessay

The most striking thing about this horse is what happens when the weather turns ugly. On wet or muddy ground, Lessay wins 2 from 9 races — a 22% win rate, or nearly 1 in every 4. That is more than three times its overall average, and it is a real pattern rather than a fluke. For most horses, soft ground is an excuse to run below par. For Lessay, it is practically an invitation. Keep an eye on the forecast.

Kempton Park is the other piece of the puzzle. Two wins from nine races there makes it a course specialist by any reasonable measure — not because Kempton suits every horse, but because the flat, all-weather oval clearly suits this one in particular. Its first career win came there in December 2023, and the track has been kind to it ever since. When Lessay turns up at Kempton on a wet night, it is worth paying attention.

The horse's preferred range of 7 furlongs to a mile has produced all three of its career wins from 25 races in that bracket — a 12% win rate, or roughly 1 in 8, which is meaningfully better than its overall record suggests. Most recently, Lessay won at Wolverhampton back in December, around four months ago, and has not added to that tally in the six races since. The recent form of 11-5-4-7-6-3 shows flickers of life — that third place last time out is the closest it has come — but the winner's enclosure has stayed out of reach.

Patrick Morris, training out of Prescott in Merseyside, has sent out 21 winners this season, so the yard is clearly operating well. Regular jockey Hector Crouch has yet to win together with Lessay in five attempts, which is a curious blank given the horse's record elsewhere. Whether that partnership clicks eventually remains to be seen. For now, Lessay is the kind of horse that rewards patience, a wet forecast, and a trip to Kempton.