Cerulean Bay

The turnaround began when trainer David O'Meara, based in North Yorkshire, dropped Cerulean Bay back in trip to seven furlongs. The horse loves slightly soft ground—it has won 2 of 4 races on that surface, a 50 percent win rate—but performs well enough on normal conditions too, with 4 wins from 13 races. Jockey Daniel Tudhope, who rides the horse regularly, has struck up a productive partnership: 3 wins from 8 races together represents a 38 percent win rate, well above the horse's career average. After that October victory at Goodwood, though, the form has dried up. Cerulean Bay has not won in its last six races, though it has placed twice—it ran eighth, then fifth, then twelfth, ninth, second, and fourth. The horse raced just a day ago, so it remains active and in work, but the recent slump suggests the window of top-level opportunity may be tightening. Still, with the right ground, the right track, and the right race, Cerulean Bay has shown it belongs among the better horses in its class—and on its day, it can beat them.