Paul Attwater

The clearest sign of progress is the improvement in his win rate. In his first period of training it sat at just 2% — barely 1 in every 50 runners — but this season it has climbed to 8%, a fourfold jump that is more than just a good run of luck. Something is clicking, whether that is better horse placement, sharper stable form, or simply learning which horses to back and when.

His most productive partnership in the saddle has been with jockey Edward Greatrex, who has ridden 20 times for the yard and come home in front twice — a win rate of 10%, or 1 in every 10 rides. That is a modest but meaningful number for a yard still in its infancy, and the fact that Greatrex keeps getting the call suggests a working relationship that both parties find worth continuing.

One interesting pattern is how the yard performs on dry, fast ground. Three wins from 23 races in those conditions works out at 13% — roughly 1 in every 8 — which is noticeably better than the overall average. It is a small sample, but it hints that some of Attwater's horses may genuinely suit a firmer surface, and it is worth watching when the ground dries out through summer.

Not everything has clicked yet. Brodie's Boy, the horse most often associated with the yard, has run six times under Attwater without winning. Six races is enough to say the partnership has not yet produced the result everyone presumably hopes for. Whether that changes with conditions, distance, or simply more time together is one of the more interesting open questions around the stable heading into the months ahead.