Lemos De Souza

The most striking number on the sheet is also one of the smallest. Jockey George Wood has partnered De Souza's horses 20 times and ridden just 1 winner — a 5% win rate, or 1 in 20. That would look worrying at a more established yard, but in the context of a trainer in their first year, it likely reflects the reality of building a string from scratch: plenty of horses learning their trade, plenty of near-misses. Wood keeps coming back, which suggests there is belief in what is being built.

Where De Souza has found a genuine edge is on wet and muddy ground. Three wins from 17 races in those conditions works out at roughly 1 in every 6 — nearly double the overall yard average — and that is too consistent to be coincidence. Some trainers have a talent for preparing horses that thrive when the ground is testing, and early evidence suggests De Souza may be one of them. Worth keeping in mind on a rainy week.

Kempton Park tells a similar story: 3 winners from 17 runners at the same track, which mirrors that same 1-in-6 return. Kempton is a sharp, all-weather circuit that suits a specific type of horse, and the fact that De Souza is already finding winners there regularly points to a yard that knows what kind of animal it is training. For a trainer barely a year in, having a track where the horses consistently show up ready to run is a significant foundation to build on.