K J Condon

The headline numbers for this season are modest — 4 winners from 86 runners, which works out at roughly 1 in every 22 races, or just 5%. In the cold light of day, that is a tough return. But zoom in on the last two weeks and a very different picture emerges: 1 winner from just 5 runners, a 20% win rate that is four times better than his seasonal average. Whether that is a purple patch or a sign of something more sustained, it is the kind of form that makes his runners worth watching right now.

One area where Condon clearly has an edge is when the rain arrives. On wet or muddy ground, his horses have won 2 from 9 races — a 22% win rate, more than four times his overall seasonal average. That is not a fluke; it suggests he has horses in his care that genuinely thrive when conditions turn soft, and it is the sort of edge that is easy to overlook but hard to argue with.

The one puzzling subplot is his record with jockey Ronan Whelan. Despite being his most used riding partner this season — 20 rides together — the pair have yet to find the winner's enclosure, recording 0 wins from those 20 races. That is a long wait for a first success together, and it is the kind of statistic that quietly raises questions about whether a change of approach might be due. Twenty rides is a meaningful sample, and at some point a trainer has to weigh loyalty against results.

At 37 career winners and still only four years in, Condon is a trainer with room to grow. The wet-ground record and his sharp recent form are the two things worth keeping in mind — when the skies open and his horses are running in form, that is when this yard is most dangerous.