David M O'Brien

What makes it more striking is that it represents a sharp fall from where O'Brien was only twelve months ago. Last season he was winning at a rate of around 9% — nearly 1 in every 11 races — which is a perfectly respectable return for a small yard finding its feet. Something has clearly changed, whether that's the quality of horses coming through the door, a run of bad luck, or simply the unpredictable nature of a sport where margins are razor thin.

The partnership with jockey Sean Flanagan is the most well-worn relationship in the yard, with Flanagan riding 15 times for O'Brien. That's a meaningful number of shared rides — enough to suggest genuine loyalty and trust between trainer and rider. The frustrating part is that those 15 races haven't produced a single win between them. When your most-used jockey hasn't broken through yet, the pressure to find that breakthrough only grows.

On normal ground, there is at least a small reason for optimism. O'Brien's horses have won 1 from 13 races on standard conditions, a win rate of around 8% — noticeably better than his overall season average. It's a slim thread, but it suggests there may be something there to build on when conditions play fair.

Four years in, O'Brien is still a trainer finding his level. The dip this season doesn't define a career, but it does represent a real challenge. Small yards live and die by momentum, and right now his needs a jolt. One good winner at the right moment can change the feel of an entire season — the question is whether that moment arrives before the campaign is out.