Chris Dwyer

This season tells a slightly more complicated story. Dwyer has sent out 7 winners from 72 runners — roughly 1 in every 10 races — which represents a dip from the 15% win rate he posted last year. Winning 1 in 10 is not alarming for a trainer at this level, but the drop is worth watching. Whether it reflects a tougher batch of horses, stiffer competition, or simply a run of near-misses is the question his team will be asking themselves.

The most intriguing thread in Dwyer's recent record is his partnership with Jimmy Speaking. Three wins from 23 races together might not sound like headline numbers, but that is a consistent, productive relationship that clearly means something to the yard — the kind of combination a trainer keeps coming back to because it delivers when it matters. By contrast, the pairing with Silvestre De Sousa, one of the most experienced jockeys in the country, has yielded just 1 win from 19 rides this season, a win rate of around 5%. Enlisting a jockey of that calibre suggests ambition, but the results there have not yet caught up with the intention.

One detail that stands out is Dwyer's record on slightly soft ground — that is, conditions where there has been a bit of recent rain but the track is not fully waterlogged. He has won 1 from 6 races in those conditions, a win rate of 17%, which is notably better than his overall figures. It is a small sample, but it hints that some of his horses genuinely appreciate a bit of give in the ground. For anyone following the yard, that is the kind of edge worth keeping an eye on when the forecast turns wet.