Wolverhampton

Pennine Way has raced just four times and is yet to finish in the top three, with three consecutive 7th-place finishes suggesting she has found her level rather than being on an upward curve. The editorial notes her as one of the closer dangers to Torbados on the ratings, but that headline figure masks a horse that has shown nothing in recent races to justify optimism. Still relatively inexperienced, so improvement is possible — but the recent evidence doesn't point that way.

Athenian Spirit has finished in the top three in three of its last six races — more consistent than most in this field — and has a previous third-place finish here at Wolverhampton over this exact trip. The problem is that after 11 races, the horse still hasn't won, suggesting it finds a way to finish close without quite getting over the line. A new jockey today could be a positive or a negative, but the consistency is at least something to build on.

The most experienced horse in the field by a long way — 20 races compared to a field average of just seven — and the best career win rate here, winning roughly 1 in 7 races. He ran only six days ago and finished second, which shows he is in decent nick right now, and he has won twice on this type of all-weather surface at Wolverhampton. The concern is that he has never won on normal ground conditions, and today that is exactly what he faces.

Personal Pride hasn't raced for over two months, and the two runs before today's return were a 12th and an 8th — hardly the kind of warm-up form that suggests a big run is coming. The best evidence is a third-place finish here at Wolverhampton over seven months ago, which feels like a long time ago in a horse's career. A new jockey riding for the first time together and a 19.0 price tells you the market isn't hopeful either.

The least exposed horse in the field with just three races to her name, which means there is plenty still unknown about what she might be capable of. That said, all three runs have been disappointing — finishing 10th, 6th, and 8th — and a 23.0 price reflects how little evidence there is to back her. First time pairing of jockey and trainer adds another layer of uncertainty.

The Floors Munky is the lowest-rated horse in the field by 10lbs — a sizeable gap that reflects a horse that has struggled throughout its seven-race career without a single win or place finish. The step up two class levels today makes the task even harder, and a run of 18th last time out at Thirsk does nothing to change the picture. The lightest weight in the field offers a small practical advantage, but the data here is difficult to spin positively.