Perth

The standout course record in this field — two wins from five races here at Perth, including a victory just 35 days ago over this exact course and distance. A 10-year-old who wins roughly 1 in every 6 races across a long career, and right now he's in the middle of a purple patch with back-to-back wins. If there's a case against him, it's that the jockey hasn't won in two rides for this trainer.

Our selection despite never having won in eight career races — a genuinely unusual record for a horse that has finished in the top three seven times. She arrives here in good shape after two runner-up finishes in the last seven weeks, and this jockey-trainer combination has won the one time they've teamed up together. The odds have drifted sharply from where they opened, which is worth noting, but on fitness and recent consistency she's hard to ignore.

Thirteen races without a win, but at least this four-year-old has shown some spark — a second-place finish at Perth 80 days ago suggests he can get close on his day. He's the youngest in the field, which means there could be more improvement to come, though his jockey wins just 2 from every 53 rides for this trainer. Better than his winless record implies, but not easy to back with confidence.

The most experienced horse in the field by a mile — 67 races compared to a field average of 23 — and he's actually won over this exact course and distance before, making him one of only two course-and-distance winners here. At 11 years old, however, his last run was an eighth-place finish at Perth just 10 days ago, beaten over 34 lengths, which is hard to overlook. His best form on normal ground has come elsewhere.