La Peregrina is the market favourite and just broke through for her first career win at Thirsk this week, with three straight top-3 finishes suggesting she's found her level. She's relatively lightly raced at just 7 outings and has shown form on good ground, though her limited experience and the fact her last run was 31 days ago means there's real uncertainty about her freshness here.
Hope Rising is the only course winner in this field with a perfect 1-from-1 record at Lingfield, and she arrives here on the back of three straight wins including one at this track just 28 days ago. She's also carrying the best win rate in the field at roughly 1 in 4 races, though there's a question mark over how she'll handle normal ground for the first time in her career after thriving on faster surfaces.
Only course winner (1 from 1 here)Never raced on normal ground3 straight top-3 finishesBest career win rate in field (1 in 4)
St Hilda carries the lowest weight in the field and has shown enough to pick up three places from five career races, suggesting she understands how to run competitively at this level. However, she remains a maiden after five attempts with no wins, and while she finished third just 13 days ago, she hasn't shown the breakthrough moment of her younger rivals here.
M. Paetel(3)
·
D. Menuisier
· 3yo
· 9st 5lb
· OR 71
HeadgearFreshness
6.4
Wearing hoodFresh (74 days off)Won 1 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
Celestarak is in similar territory to La Peregrina as a three-year-old who just notched her first career win at Goodwood this week, but she's a much bigger risk with only 5 career races and a 74-day gap since her previous outing before that Goodwood success. The critical issue is she's never raced on normal ground, making it genuinely difficult to assess whether she can translate recent form to this surface.
Won 0 of last 5Raced here beforeHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
Percy Jones is the most experienced runner here with 44 career races, and he boasts the best record on normal ground with 4 wins from 18 starts—a solid 22% win rate on this surface. However, his recent form is concerning with three consecutive fourth or worse finishes, and crucially he's never won at this course despite multiple attempts, making him a difficult proposition despite the top rating on paper.
Best record on this ground (4 from 18)Most experienced (44 runs, field avg 16)
Trainer Quotes
Jul 2022
"He's still a maiden after six races but is definitely improving. He ran a very good second at Goodwood last month and went up 2lb, rather harshly. He's owned by Australians and if I can get him up one more grade, he could be worth taking over there. I ran him in a hot handicap at Haydock at the start of the month and he ran well to finish fifth. We'll stick to handicaps now. 13-07-22"
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.