Bath
·
Alliance Wales & West Handicap Stakes
Awaiting result
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
37
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 13/8
£1 wins £1.63 · 37 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.63 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 6 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- A 50% win rate at this course for A. Egan. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
- Last raced 10 days ago. That is a normal gap between runs.
TrackLab Insight
The editorial selection and market favourite for good reason—this 5-year-old has strung together three straight top-3 finishes including a win at this track just 10 days ago, exactly the progressive profile that matters in a tight race like this. Well suited by the 1m6f-2m range (18% win rate), and while he struggles on left-handed sharp tracks, Bath is a right-handed galloper where he proved capable most recently.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Market favourite (2.88)
22
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 4 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- Dropped to an easier race today. It is like being the big fish in a smaller pond. The lower standard should suit.
- A 0% record at this course for N. King. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
A 4-year-old filly who has never won in 12 races but has placed in 2 of her last 3 outings, showing some upward momentum even if the breakthrough hasn't come yet. The problem is simple: she's too green and too far from a winner to trust in a competitive Class 6 heat where every horse here has at least some experience.
Placed in 2 of last 3 races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An experienced horse with 41 career runs. Experienced horses tend to be steadier and less likely to run badly.
- Facing weaker rivals than last time out. When a horse drops to an easier race, it often finds things easier.
- 12 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
The only horse in this field with a win at this exact distance (2m 1f), boasting a 20% win rate over the trip compared to 10% overall—yet his recent form has deteriorated, finishing 5th then 3rd-3rd in his last three outings. A jockey-trainer combination racing together for the first time, making this a high-risk proposition despite the distance credentials.
Only winner at this distance
Best record at this trip (1 from 5)
£1 wins £14 · 9 Could surprise
Has raced 19 times on this ground with a low win rate
9
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 19 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- Has won here 1 time in 13 visits. That record at this course is a good sign.
TrackLab Insight
The editorial's live danger and one of the few genuine course winners in this field with a Bath victory on her record, though that came back in September. This 10-year-old ran just 10 days ago at this track and finished 4th, suggesting she has settled form here—but a 2 win haul from 45 races (4%) means she's a long way from favourite material.
One of few course winners (1 wins here)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- With an 8.3% win rate overall, K. O'Neill is one of the more dependable riders.
- A 4.3% record at this course for T. Ward. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
A 3-year-old filly rated second in the betting market despite having zero wins from 5 races, which suggests some market confidence in her latent ability—but her recent run of 3rd-8th-8th tells a different story of inconsistency and struggle. The market may be overestimating her readiness for a step up in class.
2nd in the market (6.4)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £18.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 11 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- With 42 races behind it, this horse knows what to expect. Experienced runners tend to cope better with pressure.
- An 8.1% record at this course for J. Berry. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
The standout course specialist with 4 wins from 12 races at Brighton, but this is Bath not Brighton—and her best record on normal ground is just 2 wins from 11 starts (18%). Recent form (4th-7th-8th) shows she's struggling, and her ideal distances are shorter than the 2m 1f you're facing today.
Best record on this ground (2 from 11)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1001.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- K. Fox wins 9.1% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- Its average finish over the last three runs is 4.7. That is steady. Horses that finish near the front often do so again.
- A 12-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
This 4-year-old has never encountered normal ground in his 16-race career, so you're asking him to adapt to unknown conditions while also jumping the class level—not ideal circumstances. His record of 1 win from 16 races (6%) at such a tender age signals he's operating significantly above his comfort zone here.
Never raced on normal ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £151.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has had 57 career runs, so it is an experienced racehorse. Experience helps in a tough race.
- Has yet to win over this distance. It is like asking a sprinter to run a marathon. Distance matters, and this horse has not shown it can win here.
- B. John Murphy has a 2.6% overall win rate, which is on the low side. That may mean the horse is not at its best.
TrackLab Insight
Most experienced horse in the field with 57 races under his belt, but that record of 5 wins from 57 attempts (9%) tells you everything about his ceiling. Runs again just 7 days after pulling up at Newton Abbot, which raises questions about his fitness—his only wins come on standard-to-slow ground, yet he's never won on the standard ground you'll face at Bath today.
Most experienced (57 runs, field avg 26)
Runs again after just 7 days
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £67.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 6 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- With 45 races behind it, this horse knows what to expect. Experienced runners tend to cope better with pressure.
- L. Richards has a 7.1% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
A 10-year-old with the best overall win rate in the field at 16% (7 wins from 45), but there's a massive caveat: all seven of those wins came at Lingfield Park, a track he's never reached from this draw position. He hasn't raced in 68 days and showed form collapse 68 days ago at Lingfield (7th, beaten 50 lengths), making the long layoff and track change fatal flaws.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 6)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £151.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- J. Doughty wins 15.9% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- Came 9th in the last race. It might have been an off day, or the horse may be losing form.
TrackLab Insight
Only a 3-year-old with 6 races under his belt and zero wins—still developing, still learning. His form has deteriorated sharply over his last three runs (9th-6th-5th), and stepping into a Class 6 field of seasoned horses represents a tough ask for an inexperienced type who hasn't yet broken through.
Relatively inexperienced (6 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £81.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 4 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- Has raced here 3 times without winning. This course has not suited the horse so far.
- Came 8th in the last race. It might have been an off day, or the horse may be losing form.
TrackLab Insight
Carries the lowest weight in the field as a 3-year-old filly with 14 races and zero wins, running at 8th and 5th at Bath and Brighton respectively in her last two outings. The weight allowance can't compensate for her complete lack of winning experience against a field where most runners have tasted success.
Carries lowest weight in field
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £201.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- I. Williams wins 11.6% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- Racing against weaker rivals than last time. Think of a Premier League team playing in the Championship. The drop in level helps.
- W. Cox wins 5.4% of their races overall. That is below the average for professional jockeys.
TrackLab Insight
The lowest-rated horse in the field by 9 lengths, with zero wins and zero places from 7 races—and now he's stepping up two class levels on ground he's never encountered before. His form shows 11th at Wolverhampton most recently (61.5 lengths back), making this a massive, unjustifiable ask.
Lowest rated, 9lbs below average
Steps up 2 classes
Never raced on normal ground