Olivia Tubb

The numbers tell an honest story. Last year Tubb was winning roughly 1 in every 6 races — a genuinely strong rate that suggested a jockey on the rise. This season that has dropped to 3 wins from 44 rides, closer to 1 in every 15. That's a significant shift, and it matters because confidence and momentum are everything in a sport where trainers are constantly deciding who gets the call. A lean run can become self-fulfilling if the opportunities dry up.

Her most consistent relationship is with trainer Jonathan Portman, where she has won 3 races from 34 rides together — roughly 1 in every 11. That might sound modest, but the fact that Portman keeps putting her up is itself a vote of confidence. Yards don't stick with riders out of loyalty alone; they stick with riders they trust to do a job.

One thing does stand out in her favour: Tubb is clearly at her best on normal, dry ground. On those conditions she has won 2 from 13 races this season — about 1 in every 6 — which is sharply better than her overall rate. That's the kind of specific edge that gets noticed by people who study the form closely, and it suggests there's a real talent here that conditions can either unlock or suppress.

At 24 career winners and still only three seasons in, it would be premature to read too much into a difficult stretch. Jockeys go through patches like this, and the riders who come out the other side are usually the ones who stay patient and keep riding well even when the winners aren't coming. Whether Tubb can rediscover last year's level is the question worth watching.