Mr E P O'Brien

The drought is the story right now. Thirty-nine races without a winner is a long time to go without that feeling of crossing the line first, and it raises real questions about whether things will turn around. Sometimes these barren runs are bad luck — horses that finish second, races lost by a nose — and sometimes they reflect a jockey still finding their feet at a higher level of competition. Without knowing which, the honest answer is that 39 rides is still a meaningful sample, and O'Brien will need winners on the board soon to keep yards sending him quality horses.

What gives some reason for optimism is that 10% win rate from the previous year. That is not a fluke figure — it suggests a jockey who knows what he is doing and has had horses respond to him. The challenge now is rediscovering that form before confidence becomes its own problem. Racing is a sport where momentum matters enormously, and right now O'Brien needs a breakthrough ride to get things moving again.