The most telling number in his record, though, is what happens when the heavens open. On wet or muddy ground, Dace has won 3 from just 12 races — that's 1 in every 4, a rate more than double his overall average. Whether that reflects instinctive horsemanship in testing conditions or simply the type of horses he gets booked to ride, it is a pattern worth watching. Jockeys who thrive in the mud tend to get more opportunities when the weather turns, and that could be a useful edge as his career develops.
His most reliable partnership so far is with trainer Luke Dace — almost certainly a family connection — for whom he has won 5 from 50 rides, or 1 in every 10. That might not sound spectacular, but a stable willing to put a young rider up regularly is invaluable early in a career. Fifty rides in one yard gives you a feel for horses, routines, and tactics that money simply cannot buy.
The one note of caution is that his win rate has slipped from 13% last season — roughly 1 in every 8 — down to 9%, or 1 in every 11, this time around. That kind of dip is not unusual for a young rider. As word spreads and the rides start coming from a wider range of stables, you inevitably end up on more horses that are difficult to win on. The real test now is whether he can stabilise that number or push it back up as he gains experience. Forty-two winners in under a year says the talent is there. The next twelve months will tell us quite a lot more.
| Course | Races | Wins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lingfield Park | 83 | 6 | 7.2% |
| Wolverhampton | 37 | 3 | 8.1% |
| Kempton Park | 33 | 3 | 9.1% |
| Southwell | 28 | 1 | 3.6% |
| Brighton | 19 | 0 | 0% |
| chelmsford | 17 | 2 | 11.8% |
| Goodwood | 15 | 3 | 20% |
| Windsor | 13 | 1 | 7.7% |
| Great Yarmouth | 10 | 1 | 10% |
| Newmarket | 10 | 1 | 10% |
| Newcastle | 10 | 1 | 10% |
| Salisbury | 10 | 1 | 10% |
| Bath | 10 | 1 | 10% |
| Newbury | 9 | 0 | 0% |
| Sandown Park | 7 | 2 | 28.6% |
| Epsom Downs | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
| Leicester | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
| Chepstow | 6 | 1 | 16.7% |
| Doncaster | 5 | 1 | 20% |
| Ascot | 5 | 0 | 0% |
| Nottingham | 4 | 0 | 0% |
| Chester | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
| Catterick Bridge | 2 | 1 | 50% |
| Haydock Park | 2 | 1 | 50% |
| Carlisle | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| York | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| Killarney | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| Ayr | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| Ripon | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| Thirsk | 1 | 0 | 0% |