Early Release

Start with the ground. On wet or muddy ground, Early Release transforms. Two wins from just three races in those conditions works out to a 67% win rate, which is the kind of statistic that should make anyone sit up straight. That is not a coincidence — that is a horse that genuinely feeds off soft underfoot conditions in a way most horses simply do not. When the rain comes, Early Release becomes a very different proposition.

Then there is Kempton Park. Two wins from three races at the same track is the mark of a course specialist — a horse that seems to read a particular circuit better than others, that finds something extra when it returns somewhere familiar. Plenty of horses travel the country and barely notice where they are. Early Release is not one of them. David Evans, the trainer based at Pandy in Monmouthshire, has had a strong season with 37 winners sent out from the yard, and Early Release fits the profile of a horse that repays patient placement — put it in the right race, on the right ground, at the right track, and it delivers.

The recent form tells a story of a horse in decent nick right now. A win at Bath on 26 May this year, followed by a fifth and then another win in the last six runs, means Early Release has won 2 of its last 6 races. That is a horse finding its feet at this level. Jordan Williams, who rides it most often, has won 1 from 5 together — 1 in every 5 rides — which is a perfectly solid partnership at Class 6 level, where Early Release does most of its racing and has won 3 from 11, or roughly 1 in every 4 tries.

With a race as recently as yesterday, Early Release is firmly in the middle of its season. If the skies darken and the ground softens up, this is precisely the kind of horse worth paying attention to.