True Promise
True Promise has taken a while to find his feet, but there are signs that a five-year-old with a solid foundation might yet fulfil his name. The horse has won five of his 42 races—roughly one win in every eight attempts—and has finished in the placings another 18 times, which suggests a reliable, honest competitor rather than a world-beater. His most recent victory came at Wolverhampton on 29 May, four months ago, but his last six races tell a story of inconsistency: an eighth place, then a first, but sandwiched around some runs lower down the order. He raced just yesterday, so he is clearly active and in work.Based on TrackLab's analysis
Owner
Graham Smith And Partner
📊 Key numbers
Career totals for this horse
🔍 Full analysis
Our model's view, based on this horse's career and recent runs
What stands out is his partnership with jockey Shane Gray. When Gray is in the saddle, True Promise's record lifts dramatically to four wins from 12 races—a win rate of one in three—compared to his overall form. That kind of partnership is worth noting, and suggests the jockey understands how to get the best from him. Trainer Fionn McSharry, who runs a modest yard, has spoken about the horse being "a bit immature" early on but improving after that Newcastle debut win in January 2024. The yard has also had a productive season with seven winners so far, which hints at decent form and organisation.
True Promise is most dangerous on normal ground, where he has won five of 27 races (roughly one in every five and a half). He has also shown a preference for distances between seven furlongs and a mile, winning once from three races at that trip. Most tellingly, Newcastle is his happy hunting ground: three wins from 14 races there suggest he has learned the track and knows how to win on it. His typical level is Class 4 racing, where he has three wins from 18 races, so he is a consistent player in the mid-tier. At five years old and still active, there is time yet for him to turn corner again.
⚡ Strengths and risks
What helps this horse and what to watch out for
✓ What works in their favour
✔ Excellent record on standard ground: 5 wins from 27 starts (19%)
✔ Course specialist at Newcastle: 3 wins from 14 starts (21%)
✔ Well suited by 7f – 1m distances: 33% win rate
⚠ What to watch out for
⚠ Poor record on good ground: 0 wins from 8 starts
⚠ Poor record on good_to_firm ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
🎯 Where this horse runs best
Results split by ground, distance, race level and track shape
🌧 Ground
Standard (all-weather)
Loves
Standard to slow (all-weather)
Unknown
Good to soft (some give)
Unknown
Good (a little give)
Avoids
Good to firm (fairly firm)
Avoids
🏅 Race level
Class 3 (mid-level)
Avoids
🏟 Track shape
Left-handed, long straights
Likes
Right-handed, hilly
Unknown
Right-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Left-handed, tight
Unknown
Right-handed, long straights
Avoids
📅 Recent runs
The last 10 races, most recent first
26 Sep
8th
Southwell
Sprint (< 5f) · Standard · 9 runners
6 Sep
17th
York
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Soft · 22 runners
20 Aug
7th
Newcastle
5f – 6½f · Standard · 13 runners
1 Aug
9th
Thirsk
5f – 6½f · Good · 12 runners
10 Jul
5th
Chester
5f – 6½f · Good · 10 runners
29 May
🏆 Won
Wolverhampton
5f – 6½f · Standard · 10 runners
9 May
12th
Ascot
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Firm · 19 runners
26 Apr
2nd
Wetherby
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Firm · 8 runners
1 Apr
2nd
Kempton Park
5f – 6½f · Standard_To_Slow · 10 runners
24 Feb
5th
Newcastle
5f – 6½f · Standard · 12 runners
🏇 Jockeys
Every jockey who has ridden this horse, most rides first
🏟 Course record
Win rate at each course this horse has visited
| Course | Races | Results | Last run | Win rate |
| Newcastle Galloping |
14 |
3 wins, 3 seconds, 3 thirds, 5 other |
20 Aug |
21.4% |
| Southwell Galloping |
10 |
1 win, 3 seconds, 6 other |
26 Sep |
10% |
| York Galloping |
3 |
3 other |
6 Sep |
0% |
| Wolverhampton Galloping |
2 |
1 win, 1 other |
29 May |
50% |
| Thirsk Galloping |
2 |
2 other |
1 Aug |
0% |
| Ripon Sharp |
2 |
1 third, 1 other |
9 May |
0% |
| Kempton Park Galloping |
2 |
1 second, 1 other |
1 Apr |
0% |
| chelmsford |
1 |
1 second |
13 Feb |
0% |
| Beverley Undulating |
1 |
1 other |
16 Apr |
0% |
| Wetherby Galloping |
1 |
1 second |
26 Apr |
0% |
| Ascot Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
9 May |
0% |
| Carlisle Undulating |
1 |
1 other |
19 May |
0% |
| Haydock Park Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
3 Jul |
0% |
| Chester Tight |
1 |
1 other |
10 Jul |
0% |