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True Promise

True Promise has taken a while to find his feet, but there are signs that a five-year-old with a solid foundation might yet fulfil his name. The horse has won five of his 42 races—roughly one win in every eight attempts—and has finished in the placings another 18 times, which suggests a reliable, honest competitor rather than a world-beater. His most recent victory came at Wolverhampton on 29 May, four months ago, but his last six races tell a story of inconsistency: an eighth place, then a first, but sandwiched around some runs lower down the order. He raced just yesterday, so he is clearly active and in work.Based on TrackLab's analysis
Quick facts
Age
5 years old
Sex
Gelding
Colour
Chestnut
Father
Washington DC
Mother
In Trutina
Owner
Graham Smith And Partner
Official rating
79

📊 Key numbers

Career totals for this horse
42
Career races
5
Wins
11.9%
Win rate
avg ~10%
42.9%
Top-3 rate
avg ~30%
22 days
Since last race

🔍 Full analysis

Our model's view, based on this horse's career and recent runs
TrackLab's detailed breakdown

What stands out is his partnership with jockey Shane Gray. When Gray is in the saddle, True Promise's record lifts dramatically to four wins from 12 races—a win rate of one in three—compared to his overall form. That kind of partnership is worth noting, and suggests the jockey understands how to get the best from him. Trainer Fionn McSharry, who runs a modest yard, has spoken about the horse being "a bit immature" early on but improving after that Newcastle debut win in January 2024. The yard has also had a productive season with seven winners so far, which hints at decent form and organisation.

True Promise is most dangerous on normal ground, where he has won five of 27 races (roughly one in every five and a half). He has also shown a preference for distances between seven furlongs and a mile, winning once from three races at that trip. Most tellingly, Newcastle is his happy hunting ground: three wins from 14 races there suggest he has learned the track and knows how to win on it. His typical level is Class 4 racing, where he has three wins from 18 races, so he is a consistent player in the mid-tier. At five years old and still active, there is time yet for him to turn corner again.

⚡ Strengths and risks

What helps this horse and what to watch out for
✓ What works in their favour
✔ Excellent record on standard ground: 5 wins from 27 starts (19%)
✔ Course specialist at Newcastle: 3 wins from 14 starts (21%)
✔ Well suited by 7f – 1m distances: 33% win rate
⚠ What to watch out for
⚠ Poor record on good ground: 0 wins from 8 starts
⚠ Poor record on good_to_firm ground: 0 wins from 3 starts

🎯 Where this horse runs best

Results split by ground, distance, race level and track shape
🌧 Ground
Standard (all-weather)
Loves
Standard to slow (all-weather)
Unknown
Good to soft (some give)
Unknown
Good (a little give)
Avoids
Good to firm (fairly firm)
Avoids
📏 Race distance
7F – 1M
Loves
5F – 6½F
Ok
Sprint (< 5F)
Avoids
🏅 Race level
Class 3 (mid-level)
Avoids
Class 4 (standard)
Class 5 (entry-level)
Ok
🏟 Track shape
Left-handed, long straights
Right-handed, hilly
Unknown
Right-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Long straights
Unknown
Left-handed, tight
Unknown
Right-handed, long straights
Avoids

📅 Recent runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
26 Sep
8th
Southwell
Sprint (< 5f) · Standard · 9 runners
6 Sep
17th
York
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Soft · 22 runners
20 Aug
7th
Newcastle
5f – 6½f · Standard · 13 runners
1 Aug
9th
Thirsk
5f – 6½f · Good · 12 runners
10 Jul
5th
Chester
5f – 6½f · Good · 10 runners
29 May
🏆 Won
Wolverhampton
5f – 6½f · Standard · 10 runners
9 May
12th
Ascot
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Firm · 19 runners
26 Apr
2nd
Wetherby
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Firm · 8 runners
1 Apr
2nd
Kempton Park
5f – 6½f · Standard_To_Slow · 10 runners
24 Feb
5th
Newcastle
5f – 6½f · Standard · 12 runners

🏇 Jockeys

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, most rides first
33.3%
Win rate
4/12
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/6
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/4
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/3
Wins / rides
50%
Win rate
1/2
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/2
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/2
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/2
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
Louise Akehurst
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides

🏟 Course record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast runWin rate
Newcastle
Galloping
14 3 wins, 3 seconds, 3 thirds, 5 other 20 Aug 21.4%
Southwell
Galloping
10 1 win, 3 seconds, 6 other 26 Sep 10%
York
Galloping
3 3 other 6 Sep 0%
Wolverhampton
Galloping
2 1 win, 1 other 29 May 50%
Thirsk
Galloping
2 2 other 1 Aug 0%
Ripon
Sharp
2 1 third, 1 other 9 May 0%
Kempton Park
Galloping
2 1 second, 1 other 1 Apr 0%
chelmsford 1 1 second 13 Feb 0%
Beverley
Undulating
1 1 other 16 Apr 0%
Wetherby
Galloping
1 1 second 26 Apr 0%
Ascot
Galloping
1 1 other 9 May 0%
Carlisle
Undulating
1 1 other 19 May 0%
Haydock Park
Galloping
1 1 other 3 Jul 0%
Chester
Tight
1 1 other 10 Jul 0%