Sergeant Pep

What makes him worth watching is how he behaves on wet ground. In six races on soft or muddy surfaces, Sergeant Pep has won twice — a 33% win rate that stands out sharply against his overall record. This is the kind of track preference that can guide a punter's eye toward value when the rain arrives. By contrast, he wins at his typical Class 4 level (the bread and butter of British racing) just 14% of the time, which mirrors his career average almost exactly.

His last victory came at Leicester on 8 October 2024, more than 18 months ago now. Since then, his recent form reads as a pattern of near misses: second, third, second, third, second, and sixth across his last six outings. That tells a tale familiar to anyone who watches racing — a horse with ability but without the spark to finish the job. His jockey John Fahy has ridden him 12 times and won twice, a 17% success rate that suggests genuine partnership rather than occasional luck. Clive Cox, his trainer at Lambourn, has had a prolific season with 48 winners to his name, so the yard is clearly firing on multiple cylinders even if Sergeant Pep is not among the headline makers. The horse raced just a day ago and remains active, which means his next opportunity could come very soon — and if the ground turns wet, that is the moment to pay attention.