Oman

The distance tells a big part of his story. At a mile and one or two furlongs — a middle-distance trip that suits a horse with a bit of engine rather than pure speed — he has won 2 of his 6 races, which is 1 in every 3. That is a dramatically better record than his overall figures suggest, and it tells you clearly that when the yard get the trip right, Oman is a horse worth following. His typical level is Class 4, the bread-and-butter tier of British Flat racing, where he has won 1 from 13 attempts — roughly 1 in 13 — which is modest, but those two distance wins suggest the right race at the right trip can unlock something better.

Tony Carroll, based in Cropthorne in Worcestershire, trains him. Carroll's yard has sent out 136 winners this season, which marks it out as a serious, high-volume operation — they run a lot of horses, but they also win a lot of races. Zak Wheatley rides Oman most regularly, winning once from their six races together, a rate of about 1 in 6. Given how specific Oman's ideal conditions appear to be, that record is probably more about opportunity than partnership.

His recent run of form reads 9-7-4-1-4-8 in reverse order, meaning that win sits four runs back — and he has been less convincing since. He raced just yesterday, so he is bang in the middle of a busy campaign. The picture that emerges is of a horse who has taken years to settle into himself but knows exactly what he wants: a fair trip, the right distance, and a big occasion to rise to. Goodwood last month suggests he is still very much capable of delivering it.