Lerwick

His one bright spot is his preference for normal ground conditions — on standard, dry going he has won 2 of his 10 races (a 20% win rate), which is twice his overall average. At his favoured distance of between one mile and one furlong and one mile and two furlongs, he has won 2 of 12 races (17%), again notably better than his baseline. This suggests Lerwick has a type of race where he runs to his best, even if it does not come around often enough to make him a consistent winner.

Callum Rodriguez has ridden him eight times, with one win between them (12%), and Mark Loughnane's Rock Farm yard in Worcestershire has been in reasonable form, sending out 25 winners this season. The puzzle is Lerwick's record at Class 4 level — he has not won once in 18 attempts at this grade, which suggests he may struggle when the field is at this standard. His sole recent win at Ffos Las four weeks ago came outside this typical class, pointing to a horse that needs the ground and distance to work in his favour to get his head in front. For a six-year-old still racing, he is a solid type without a great deal of upside.