Hilltop

At the level where Hilltop typically competes—Class 5 races—the numbers are slightly better. It has won 2 of 13 races at this grade, a win rate just above 15 percent. That's not a record to get excited about, but it shows the horse belongs in these sorts of contests. The problem is the drought. Seven months without a win is a long time in racing, especially for a horse that isn't top class and can't afford to lose confidence or form.

Hilltop races for Daniel and Claire Kubler's Lambourn yard, which is a legitimate operation—they've sent out 34 winners already this season. That suggests the horse is receiving competent care and training. But competence alone won't get Hilltop back to the winner's circle. The horse needs to either find its way back to form or move to a lower level where it might gain some confidence. At present, it looks like a horse that has lost its rhythm, grinding away at modest races without the spark that brought those first three wins.