J A Stack

The last fortnight has been particularly eye-catching. Two winners from 8 runners in the past two weeks gives a win rate of 25%, nearly double the season average. Trainers in good form tend to stay in good form — confidence spreads through a yard, horses get placed well, and small decisions start going right. Whether this is the start of a purple patch or just a good couple of weeks, it is worth paying attention.

One partnership stands out above the rest. When Seamie Heffernan climbs aboard a Stack-trained runner, it pays to take notice. The combination has clicked 8 times from 44 rides together — roughly 1 in every 5½, or an 18% win rate — which is meaningfully better than Stack's overall average. That kind of chemistry between a trainer and a jockey is not accidental. It usually means they read horses the same way, trust each other's instincts, and know when to go and when to wait.

There are two other patterns worth flagging for anyone thinking about following this trainer's runners. First, wet or muddy ground suits the Stack horses well — 3 wins from just 9 races in those conditions is a 33% win rate, or 1 in every 3, which is exceptional. Second, Gowran Park has been a particularly happy hunting ground, with 3 winners from just 5 runners there. That is a remarkable record at a specific track, suggesting Stack either knows how to target the right races at that course or simply has horses that take to the place.

Fifty-nine career winners in four years, a rising win rate, a high-percentage jockey partnership, and a genuine edge on wet ground — Stack is building something that looks increasingly hard to ignore.