Southwell

The editorial verdict points to this horse as the one to side with, and the recent form backs that up — a close fourth last time out at Fontwell, beaten just 4 lengths, suggests he's running well without yet getting the win. His last two completed races before that were a win and a near-miss second, so the ability is clearly there. At 5.3 in the market, he's second favourite and represents a reasonable case if he takes a step forward from that recent run.

Three consecutive finishes of 7th, 10th, and 8th tell a clear story — this horse has been running poorly for some time and is well off the pace in recent outings. He has two career wins to his name, but those feel a long way away right now. At 7.5 in the market, the odds don't reflect a horse that looks to be running into form.

Named as the main danger to the favourite in the editorial verdict, and the recent form gives some reason for that — two wins and a second in his last six races suggest he's been in decent shape. The big problem is that he's never won at Southwell in five attempts, and today's normal conditions have historically suited him better than they have here. A potential spoiler, but that course record is a genuine red flag.

The youngest horse in the field at five years old, but with zero wins and zero places from four career races, there's very little to work with here. He's also been off the track for 95 days — the longest absence in the field — and his last result at Newbury is listed as unknown. Until there's something concrete to point to, this is one to watch rather than back.