The market has made Circus Hill the favourite at 3.3, and she arrives as the highest-rated horse in the field at 96 — ahead of the selection Moyneard. She finished second here at Sligo just 33 days ago, so she knows the course, but crucially she has never raced on fast, dry ground and today's conditions are a step into the unknown for her.
Rated 90 and identified as one of the chief dangers here, Churchfield Annie has been placed in three of her four races — consistent enough to take seriously. The catch is she has only ever raced on wet or normal ground, and today's fast, dry surface is something she has never encountered. Her trainer and jockey have won together roughly 1 in 5 times as a pairing, which adds some confidence.
This is the selection, and it is easy to see why despite seven races without a win — Moyneard has finished in the top five in six of those seven races, including three third-place finishes and a second. Rated 94, she sits just behind market favourite Circus Hill on official ratings but is preferred here on the strength of a more consistent recent profile. The one caveat shared by most of this field: she has never raced on fast, dry ground before.
Rated 94, Clovelly Charm is right up there with the top horses on paper despite having just one race to her name — a fifth-place finish at this same Sligo course 33 days ago. Like most of this field, she has only raced on non-dry ground, so today's fast surface is new territory. Lightly raced and highly rated, she is intriguing but largely unproven.
Never raced on dry groundLightly raced (1 career races)
Hill Of Ballyline is making her racecourse debut today, so there is no form at all to judge her on. What she does have is a notable trainer in Gordon Elliott, one of the most successful names in the sport. That is worth something, but on debut alone she remains a big unknown.
Only two races in, and both have come on wet or normal ground — she has never been asked to run on the fast, dry conditions she faces today. That is a genuine question mark heading into this race. She finished fourth on her better run, so there is some encouragement, but the ground switch makes her unpredictable.
Never raced on dry groundLightly raced (2 career races)
M. R M McParland(7)
·
D. M Christie
· 6yo
· 11st 11lb
Debut
1.5
First run (debut)
TrackLab Insight
Six years old and still to race for the first time, Maple Mornin is the oldest debutant in this field alongside Wild Eagle and Allez Yeats. There is no form of any kind to work with, and that age makes her debut more of a curiosity than a confident selection. Everything about her is an unknown.
This is the first time Allez Yeats has ever set foot on a racecourse, so there is literally nothing in the form book to go on. At 7 years old, she is one of the oldest first-timers in the field, which makes her even harder to read. A complete unknown.
Mila Ballerina has finished 11th and 12th in her two races so far — well beaten on both occasions and firmly at the back of the field. She is wearing a visor today, which is sometimes used to help a horse focus, but the bare numbers do not inspire confidence. At 101-1, the market agrees.
Never raced on dry groundLightly raced (2 career races)
Two races, no wins, and finishes of fourth and ninth paint the picture of a horse still finding her feet at this level. She has never raced on fast, dry ground, adding another layer of uncertainty today. At 51-1, she is among the longer shots in the field and there is little in the data to suggest that price is wrong.
Never raced on dry groundLightly raced (2 career races)
One race, one sixth-place finish, and odds of 126-1 — the market has little faith in Lexenna today. She has only raced on non-dry ground before, and that single run gives almost nothing to analyse. At this price and with this profile, she looks like one of the outsiders with the least going for her.
Never raced on dry groundLightly raced (1 career races)
Three races and finishes of 14th, 8th, and 11th make Wild Eagle one of the most out-of-form horses in this field — beaten by enormous margins each time. She is wearing a hood today, which can help settle an unsettled horse, but the evidence so far is stark. At 151-1, she is the longest shot in the race and the data does nothing to argue against that.
Never raced on dry groundLightly raced (3 career races)
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.