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Navan

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Flat Race
Starts in
19min
Bumper · flat race for young jumps horses About 2 miles Slightly soft ground 10 runners £9,000 prize money E/W: also pays on 2nd or 3rd, at 1/5 odds
Turf track
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score

Very strongStrongSolidCould surpriseLong shot

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Bet £1, get £1.83 back if it wins

  • Its first ever race
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.83 back.

How odds work
Why this score
  • A 26.9% win rate at this course for Mr H. C. Swan. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
  • G. Elliott wins 15.2% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
  • The official rating suggests this horse has work to do. Lower-rated horses need to improve to win.
TrackLab Insight
Making his racecourse debut at five years old, which is unusually late and raises questions about why he has taken this long to run; debut runners are always a mystery, and an older first-timer even more so. The market has backed him heavily as favourite, presumably on the strength of Gordon Elliott's yard record, but no horse can overcome a complete lack of racecourse exposure.
Racecourse debut Market favourite (11/10)

Bet £1, get £3.75 back if it wins

  • Its first ever race
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.75 back.

How odds work
Why this score
  • G. Elliott wins 15.2% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
  • A 15.2% overall win rate for G. Elliott. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
  • A 0% career win rate for Mr J. Paddy Carroll. That is on the low side and could matter today.
TrackLab Insight
A four-year-old making his first racecourse appearance is genuinely rare and suggests either significant setbacks in his past or a trainer who has been exceptionally patient. There is no prior form and no way to predict how he will react when the gates open.
Racecourse debut

Bet £1, get £4.50 back if it wins

  • Its first ever race
  • Wearing a hood (covers its ears to keep it calm)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.50 back.

How odds work
Why this score
  • A 23.4% win rate at this course for W. P. Mullins. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
  • Miss J. Townend has won 19.3% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
  • The official rating suggests this horse has work to do. Lower-rated horses need to improve to win.
TrackLab Insight
A debut runner from W. P. Mullins's powerful yard, which gives him a significant training advantage — the Mullins-Townend partnership has 50 wins from 191 races together. Even so, a five-year-old first-time runner remains a genuine unknown, and breeding alone cannot substitute for racecourse experience.
Racecourse debut

Bet £1, get £4.50 back if it wins

  • Won 0 of its last 5 races
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.50 back.

How odds work
Why this score
  • With a 16.9% win rate overall, Mr J. L. Gleeson is one of the more dependable riders.
  • Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
  • A 2% record at this course for D. Harry Kelly. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
This horse is the only runner with meaningful racecourse experience and a pattern of real consistency — four races, four top-3 finishes including three second top-3 finishes in a row. He has drifted in the betting but remains the most battle-hardened runner in the field and closest to a breakthrough win, though he remains without a victory after four attempts.
3 straight top-3 finishes

Bet £1, get £9.50 back if it wins

  • Its first ever race
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.50 back.

How odds work
Why this score
  • A 15.2% overall win rate for G. Elliott. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
  • A 15.2% overall win rate for G. Elliott. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
  • A 6.5% career win rate for Mr J. Dunne. That is on the low side and could matter today.
TrackLab Insight
Another debut runner, this one from Gordon Elliott's yard, carrying Doyen breeding that at least suggests soundness. Like all five-year-old first-timers in this field, the fundamental problem is that there is nothing to assess — he remains a complete unknown on the track.
Racecourse debut

Bet £1, get £8.00 back if it wins

  • Its first ever race
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.00 back.

How odds work
Why this score
  • B. Connell has won 15.1% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
  • B. Connell has a good 15.8% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
  • Not rated highly by the official rater. The rating reflects what the horse has done so far, and it is modest.
TrackLab Insight
A five-year-old debut runner with a pedigree built on staying and some class according to his bloodlines, but pedigree alone has never won a race. Barry Connell's yard has a reasonable record (8 wins from 53), but this horse arrives as a complete mystery with no racecourse evidence whatsoever.
Racecourse debut

Bet £1, get £8.00 back if it wins

  • Its first race in 321 days
  • Won 0 of its last 5 races
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.00 back.

How odds work
Why this score
  • Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
  • A weight of 168 lbs is manageable. A lighter load helps in the closing stages.
  • 321 days without racing. A long break can be a worry, as it takes time to rebuild fitness.
TrackLab Insight
Only one race under his belt, but that one outing ended in second place — so while he has not yet won, there is at least evidence he can run respectably. The major risk is the 321-day absence from the track; returning after such a long break carries real uncertainty about whether he will pick up where he left off.
Lightly raced (1 career races) Absent 321 days (longest in field)

Bet £1, get £17.00 back if it wins

  • Its first race in 200 days
  • Won 0 of its last 5 races
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £17.00 back.

How odds work
Why this score
  • N. Meade has won 13.0% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
  • The Good To Yielding ground works in this horse's favour. The ground makes a big difference in racing, and today it helps.
  • Mr F. Tegetmeier wins 4.2% of their races overall. That is below the average for professional jockeys.
TrackLab Insight
This is a four-year-old with just one career race (a tenth-place finish 200 days ago), so the data is too thin to draw firm conclusions. Running back out so quickly after that disappointing debut suggests the trainer believes there is more to come, but a single poor run tells you almost nothing about what he might deliver here.
Never raced on slightly soft ground Lightly raced (1 career races)

Bet £1, get £67.00 back if it wins

  • Its first ever race
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £67.00 back.

How odds work
Why this score
  • A weight of 168 lbs is manageable. A lighter load helps in the closing stages.
  • Today's ground is Good To Yielding, and that suits this horse. Like athletes who prefer one type of surface, horses have favourite ground.
  • P. Traynor wins only 3.4% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Making his first racecourse start at five years old for a modest yard that has sent out just one winner this season. This is a debut runner with no form data and no obvious backing from the market, making him one of the harder runners to justify on the available information.
Racecourse debut

Bet £1, get £51.00 back if it wins

  • Its first race in 223 days
  • Won 0 of its last 5 races
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £51.00 back.

How odds work
Why this score
  • A weight of 168 lbs is manageable. A lighter load helps in the closing stages.
  • 223 days without racing. A long break can be a worry, as it takes time to rebuild fitness.
  • Mr H. Lillingston wins 0% of their races overall. That is below the average for professional jockeys.
TrackLab Insight
Seven years old with no wins across four races and a recent eighth-place finish — this is a horse searching hard for a breakthrough. The added question mark here is ground he's never encountered: slightly soft terrain presents a genuine unknown for a veteran who has run out of luck on firmer surfaces.
Never raced on slightly soft ground
Full stats
  • Uncle Pad (no. 10)
    Jockey Mr H. C. Swan: wins 0% of rides (last 14 days)
    Trainer G. Elliott: wins 0% of runners (last 14 days)
    Age 5, weight 12st 0lb
  • Certain Escape (no. 2)
    Jockey Mr J. Paddy Carroll: wins 0% of rides (last 14 days)
    Trainer G. Elliott: wins 0% of runners (last 14 days)
    Age 4, weight 12st 0lb
  • Kanzler (no. 5)
    Jockey Miss J. Townend: wins 0% of rides (last 14 days)
    Trainer W. P. Mullins: wins 0% of runners (last 14 days)
    Age 5, weight 12st 0lb
  • Sir Vinny (no. 9)
    Jockey Mr J. L. Gleeson: wins 0% of rides (last 14 days)
    Trainer D. Harry Kelly: wins 0% of runners (last 14 days)
    Age 5, weight 12st 0lb
  • Airforce Marshal (no. 1)
    Jockey Mr J. Dunne: wins 0% of rides (last 14 days)
    Trainer G. Elliott: wins 0% of runners (last 14 days)
    Age 5, weight 12st 0lb
  • Elusive Legend (no. 3)
    Jockey Mr F. Maguire: wins 0% of rides (last 14 days)
    Trainer B. Connell: wins 0% of runners (last 14 days)
    Age 5, weight 12st 0lb
  • Nine Toes Tim (no. 7)
    Jockey Mr T. A. Halford: wins 0% of rides (last 14 days)
    Trainer S. R. B. Crawford: wins 0% of runners (last 14 days)
    Age 5, weight 12st 0lb
  • Noble Indulgence (no. 8)
    Jockey Mr F. Tegetmeier: wins 0% of rides (last 14 days)
    Trainer N. Meade: wins 33% of runners (last 14 days)
    Age 4, weight 12st 0lb
  • Giomibe (no. 4)
    Jockey A. McGuinness: wins 0% of rides (last 14 days)
    Trainer P. Traynor: wins 0% of runners (last 14 days)
    Age 5, weight 12st 0lb
  • Line Speed (no. 6)
    Jockey Mr H. Lillingston: wins 0% of rides (last 14 days)
    Trainer J. E & Thomas Kiely: wins 0% of runners (last 14 days)
    Age 7, weight 12st 0lb
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance 20–39 Strong chance 12–19 Solid chance 6–11 Could surprise Under 6 Long shot Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.

What these words mean

Underrated horse
We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
Our top pick
The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
TrackLab Score
Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
Ground
How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
Race level (Class)
From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
Group, Grade and Listed
The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
Handicap
The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
Maiden
A race for horses that haven't won yet.
Novice
A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
Chase, hurdle and bumper
Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
Distance (m and f)
m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
Each way
A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
Weight
How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
Jockey claim
An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
Headgear
Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
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