Leicester

The top-rated horse in this field by 4lbs and the market favourite, she's been placed in four of her seven races without ever winning — including a second-place finish last time out at Ripon, just 1.5 lengths from victory. She's yet to race at Leicester, and a 27-day break since that run is the only small question mark heading in. On the figures, she's clearly the one to beat.

The only horse in this field who has actually won at Leicester — and she did it just 19 days ago, right here on this track. She wins roughly 1 in every 5 races, the best career win rate in the field, but there's a catch: she has zero wins from six races on normal ground conditions, and Leicester today presents exactly that. Recent course form is compelling; the ground record is a genuine concern.

By far the most experienced horse in this field with 30 races under her belt — the field average is just 12 — and she does genuinely know how to win at today's distance, with a 19% win rate over 1m1f to 1m2f. That said, her last run was a distant sixth at Wolverhampton just eight days ago, and the sharp drift in odds from 1.1 to 5.0 is a striking red flag. She's done plenty in her career, but the recent signs aren't encouraging.

She carries the lowest weight in the field and is rated 4lbs below the average — but she's actually the only horse here with a proven win at today's distance of 1m2f, winning 1 from 3 races at this trip. The problem is her last two runs were woeful, beaten over 20 lengths on both occasions, and she hasn't raced in 57 days. There's a distant chance the conditions suit her on paper, but she needs to rediscover something close to her best.