Downpatrick

The market has made this the favourite despite a modest record of one place from three races, and a fall last time out before finishing a distant fourth on her comeback. What the market is really betting on is the trainer, Gordon Elliott, who wins a huge proportion of his races and has sent this lightly raced six-year-old out with clear potential still to unlock. Whether 93 days off the track is ideal remains to be seen.

The most experienced horse in this field by a distance — 17 races to the average of 5 — and yet still waiting for win number one. She has finished in the top few nearly 60% of the time, including a second place here at Downpatrick 53 days ago, so she clearly handles this track. The problem is she has never won here in six attempts, or anywhere in 17 tries, and a jockey claiming an allowance may not be the answer.

The top-rated horse in this field by nine pounds — a meaningful edge that says the official assessors rate her clearly above everyone else here. She has finished second twice in four races, showing she can be competitive, though her latest run was a disappointing fourth beaten nearly 27 lengths at Roscommon. If she returns to the form that earned her that rating, she has every right to be involved at the business end.

She has raced here at Downpatrick before and finished second just 67 days ago, which makes her one of the few in this field with a positive course reference to point to. Across 12 races she has never won, but six places show she competes — the lowest official rating in the field, however, suggests the assessors see her below most of her rivals on pure ability. A course specialist angle is her best argument.