The market favourite, though punters have cooled on her after she drifted from a much shorter price. She ran just seven days ago and finished second at Catterick, so she arrives here fresher than most rivals and with recent race fitness on her side. With three runner-up finishes from five races, she keeps knocking on the door — this is the most likely horse in the field to finally break through.
Runs again after just 7 daysMarket favourite (3.2)
Her last run was a well-beaten 11th at Yarmouth, which makes the form look messy, but she had shown something worthwhile before that with a third-place finish at Lingfield. The concern is that the Yarmouth run came most recently and the step back to a sharp five furlongs at Bath is a significant change of approach. Inconsistency is the word that defines her three-race career so far.
Just one race on the record — a sixth-place finish at Windsor — so there is almost nothing to go on. What she does have is the best draw in the race: stall one at Bath over five furlongs, where low draws win roughly 1 in 8 races from that group, compared to worse odds from the middle or high. On bare form she is an unknown quantity, but the draw is a genuine plus.
Only one race to her name, a fifth-place finish here at Bath 14 days ago, so she already knows this track. That course experience is a small but genuine advantage over several rivals who are racing here for the first time. Data is thin — one race tells you very little — but running again on a track she has already seen is a sensible move.
One race, one fifth-place finish at Windsor 44 days ago — that is the entire evidence base here, so it is hard to make a strong case for or against. She draws in stall six, which sits in the mid-draw range where Bath's five-furlong record is noticeably weaker than for low draws. With so little data and an unfavourable draw position, she needs to show significant improvement on her debut to factor.
Three races, three finishes of fifth or worse, and she has never really threatened the leaders in any of them — the most consistent thing about her so far is finishing in the back half of the field. She is also the lowest-rated horse in the field with an official rating of 64, two pounds below average. Nothing in the data gives a strong reason to think this race will be different.
She carries the highest official rating in the field — three pounds clear of the average — yet the market has her at 15-1, which suggests bettors are not convinced her rating reflects her current ability. Her last run was a distant sixth, beaten 31 lengths at Chepstow, which is hard to ignore despite a promising second place at Brighton before that. The big gap between her rating and her odds makes her one of the more puzzling entries in this race.
Top rated by 3lbsLightly raced (3 career races)Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Two races, two struggles — a 13th and an 8th, beaten well into double figures on both occasions. She is the longest shot in the field at 67-1 and has given no sign yet of the ability needed to compete at this level. Honest assessment: the data here points firmly in one direction, and it is not towards a first win.
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.