Toby McCain-Mitchell(5)

The most important relationship in his career so far is with the Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies yard, one of the most respected training operations in the sport. From 58 rides together, that partnership has produced 12 winners — closer to 1 in every 5 — which tells you the stable trusts him with their horses regularly, and he repays that faith more often than not. When a trainer keeps putting you up, it means something.

There are conditions that suit him particularly well. On fast, dry ground he has won 1 from 4 races, a 25% return that hints at a jockey who rides with confidence when the ground is in his favour. And at Kempton Park, a tight, turning track that punishes jockeys who are not sharp at reading a race, he has won 3 from just 5 rides — a remarkable ratio that suggests he either loves the place or has figured something out that others have not. Tracks like Kempton sort riders quickly, and his numbers there stand out.

The one note of caution is that his win rate has dipped from 23% last season to 16% this time around. That is worth watching. It could simply reflect a tougher book of rides, or more competitive fields as his reputation grows and he gets fewer easy opportunities. It is not a crisis — 1 in 6 is still a respectable return — but it is a trend he will want to reverse. The next twelve months will tell us a great deal about whether he is building toward becoming a genuine force in the weighing room, or whether this is the level he settles at. Given the Twiston-Davies connection and his record at tracks like Kempton, the signs still point upward.