Aidan Kelly(3)

This season, though, has been a grind. Six winners from 145 races works out to roughly 1 in every 24 — a 4% win rate that represents a sharp drop from the 12% he managed last year. To put that in plain terms: last season he was winning about 1 in every 8 races; now it is closer to 1 in every 24. That is a significant fall, and at some point in the coming months the question of whether this is a temporary rough patch or a sign of deeper difficulty will need answering.

There are still reasons to follow him. His most consistent relationship is with trainer Padraig Roche, for whom he has won 3 times from 45 rides together — roughly 1 in every 15, a 7% win rate that actually doubles his overall seasonal average. That kind of loyalty between a yard and a young rider often matters more than raw numbers. He also has a notable partnership with a horse called Catchabird, winning 2 of their 13 races together — a bond worth watching whenever they line up again.

Perhaps the most interesting detail in his record is how he performs when the heavens open. On wet or muddy ground, Kelly has won 3 times from just 20 races — a 15% win rate, or roughly 1 in every 7. That is more than three times his overall seasonal average, and it suggests either a natural feel for riding in difficult conditions or a smart book of rides that leans toward horses who handle the mud well. Either way, when the forecast turns gloomy, his name is one worth checking on the racecard.