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Billy Lee Swagger

There's a horse finding its best form at exactly the right time. Billy Lee Swagger, a seven-year-old trained by P J Rothwell out of Tinahely in County Wicklow, has built a career record of 3 wins and 8 places from 22 races — winning roughly 1 in every 7 — which tells you this is a horse that keeps showing up and competing without always getting its nose in front. But the recent form is what catches the eye.Based on TrackLab's analysis
Quick facts
Age
7 years old
Sex
Gelding
Colour
Bay
Father
Laverock
Mother
Greenane
Owner
Blind Squirrels Syndicate/William Esdaile
Official rating
126

📊 Key numbers

Career totals for this horse
22
Career races
3
Wins
13.6%
Win rate
avg ~10%
36.4%
Top-3 rate
avg ~30%
132 days
Since last race

🔍 Full analysis

Our model's view, based on this horse's career and recent runs
TrackLab's detailed breakdown

Cast a glance at the last six races and the picture sharpens considerably. Two finishes well back in the field — seventeenth on both occasions — were followed by a gap, then a win, a runner-up spot, and another win at Ballinrobe just a fortnight ago. That kind of turnaround, from the back of the pack to back-to-back podium finishes, suggests something clicked. Whether it was a change in conditions, a drop in the level of competition, or simply a horse hitting form at the right moment, the numbers say Rothwell's yard has this horse where it wants it right now. And that yard is no quiet operation — 35 winners already on the board this season.

The partnership with jockey Tiernan Power Roche is worth noting. Together they have won 2 of their 9 races, a win rate of around 22% — better than 1 in every 5 times they've lined up together. That's a meaningful number. It suggests a combination that works, and with Billy Lee Swagger raced just yesterday and clearly in the thick of things, the horse's first career win at Punchestown back in December 2023 now looks less like a one-off and more like the opening chapter of a horse that takes time to warm up but is genuinely worth following when the conditions suit.

⚡ Strengths and risks

What helps this horse and what to watch out for
✓ What works in their favour
✔ Excellent record on yielding_to_soft ground: 1 wins from 4 starts (25%)
⚠ What to watch out for
⚠ Poor record on soft ground: 0 wins from 5 starts
⚠ Poor record on soft_to_heavy ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
⚠ Poor record on yielding ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
⚠ Struggles on LH Galloping tracks: 0 wins from 5 starts

🎯 Where this horse runs best

Results split by ground, distance, race level and track shape
🌧 Ground
Yielding to soft (damp)
Loves
Heavy (very wet)
Good (a little give)
Unknown
Soft (muddy)
Avoids
Soft to heavy (wet)
Avoids
Yielding (slightly soft)
Avoids
📏 Race distance
Long Distance (2M+)
1M6F – 2M
Unknown
🏟 Track shape
Right-handed, long straights
Loves
Right-handed, tight turns
Loves
Right-handed, tight
Unknown
Left-handed, long straights
Avoids
Right-handed, hilly
Avoids

📅 Recent runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
8 Jun
3rd
Roscommon
Long Distance (2m+) · Yielding_To_Soft · 11 runners
25 May
🏆 Won
Ballinrobe
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 17 runners
30 Apr
DNF
Punchestown
Long Distance (2m+) · Yielding · 26 runners
29 Mar
DNF
Downpatrick
Long Distance (2m+) · Yielding_To_Soft · 10 runners
8 Mar
17th
Naas
Long Distance (2m+) · Soft_To_Heavy · 17 runners
8 Mar
17th
Naas
Long Distance (2m+) · Soft_To_Heavy · 17 runners
21 Feb
DNF
Fairyhouse
Long Distance (2m+) · Heavy · 8 runners
12 Feb
DNF
Clonmel
Long Distance (2m+) · Heavy · 11 runners
29 Nov
🏆 Won
Fairyhouse
Long Distance (2m+) · Yielding_To_Soft · 22 runners
16 Nov
6th
Navan
Long Distance (2m+) · Heavy · 22 runners

🏇 Jockeys

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, most rides first
22.2%
Win rate
2/9
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/4
Wins / rides
50%
Win rate
1/2
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/2
Wins / rides
Aidan Kelly
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
Miss P Elvin
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides

🏟 Course record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast runWin rate
Punchestown
Galloping
5 1 win, 1 second, 3 other 30 Apr 20%
Naas
Galloping
3 3 other 8 Mar 0%
Fairyhouse
Galloping
2 1 win, 1 other 21 Feb 50%
Gowran Park
Undulating
2 1 second, 1 other 25 Jan 0%
Navan
Galloping
2 2 other 16 Nov 0%
Roscommon
Sharp
2 1 third, 1 other 8 Jun 0%
Ballinrobe
Sharp
1 1 win 25 May 100%
Galway
Tight
1 1 other 3 Aug 0%
Limerick
Galloping
1 1 other 21 Oct 0%
Clonmel
Sharp
1 1 other 12 Feb 0%
Down Royal
Galloping
1 1 second 17 Mar 0%
Downpatrick
Undulating
1 1 other 29 Mar 0%