Two Tribes

The puzzle with Two Tribes is timing. It won a Class 2 race at Meydan on 2 January 2026, but that victory now sits nine months in the past. The last six races have brought nothing but placed finishes — a second, a fifth, a third, a 12th, a 16th — the kind of form that keeps a horse in work but frustrates everyone involved. Raced yesterday, Two Tribes remains active in Richard Spencer's Newmarket yard, which has had a productive season with 30 winners to its name. The horse shows a clear preference for normal ground conditions, where it has won 3 of its last 9 races — a 33 percent win rate that suggests firm or soft surfaces blunt what little edge it possesses. That statistic alone might explain some of the recent struggles if racing has skewed toward extremes.

Two Tribes is a horse that justifies itself through occasional excellence rather than consistency. The Class 2 wins prove it belongs in serious company now and then, and a trainer of Spencer's caliber would not keep it racing unless there was a plan. Whether that plan includes another return to the winner's circle soon remains to be seen, but the betting market will remember those peak efforts when the right opportunity comes up.